强劲的2025年第三季度业绩，盈利增长健康

earnings growth Solid 3Q25 results with healthy earnings Target PriceHK$25.40(Previous TPHK$24.00)Up/Downside16.7%Current PriceHK$21.76 Tongcheng Travel (TC) reported(25 Nov) 3Q25 results:totalrevenue wasRMB5.5bn, up10.4% YoY, and was1% better thanbothour forecastandBloomberg consensus estimates; adjusted NP was RMB1.06bn, up16.5% YoY,andwas 4/2%better than our forecast/consensus,driven by better-than-expected operating leverage of core OTA business. OPM of the core OTAbusiness expanded to31.2% in3Q25 (3Q24:31.1%),0.1ppts ahead of ourforecast.Wehavelifted 2025E-2027E revenue forecast by 1-3% to factor inincrementalrevenue contribution from the consolidation of Wanda HotelManagement(WHM)since Oct 2025,andadjusted down non-GAAPNPby 1- China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Core OTA businessdelivered healthy growth.In3Q25, TC’s core OTAbusinessrevenuereached RMB4.6bn (83.7% of total revenue), up14.9%YoY (2Q25:13.7% YoY), and was0.4% ahead of consensus driven bybetter-than-expected revenue growth in accommodation reservationservicesand others.In 3Q25,transportation ticketing services/accommodationreservation services/otherrevenue achieved YoY growthof9.0%/14.7%/34.9%(2Q25:7.9%/15.2%/27.5%).The12-month Joanna Ma(852)3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hk 4Q25 outlook:expecting healthy revenue growth of core OTAbusiness to sustain.For4Q25E, we estimate TC to ink total revenue ofRMB4.76bn, up12.4% YoY, driven by17.4% YoY revenuegrowthofcoreOTA segment, but offset by a10.0% YoY decline intourism revenue. Withinthecore OTA business, we are looking for8.3/14.6/48.9% YoY revenuegrowth for transportation ticketing/accommodationreservation (AR)/other Expecting a stable OPMfor core OTA businessYoY for4Q25E on highbase.TC’s overall OPM reached21.1% in3Q25, up from19.6% in3Q24,among which OPMof core OTA business improved to 31.2% (3Q24:31.1%), thanks tosolidrevenue growth which helped unleash operatingleverage.WeforecastOPM ofcore OTAbusinessto remain stable YoY at28.4% in 4Q25E, as TC faces a high base and expects to continueincreasingmarketing spend for new user acquisition, albeit at a disciplinedpace.Fornon-GAAP net profit, we are anticipating14.0% YoY growth to Source: FactSet Wehavelifted 2025E-2027E revenue forecast by 1-3% to factor in incrementalrevenue contribution from the consolidation of Wanda Hotel Management (WHM)since Oct 2025,andadjusted down non-GAAP NP by 1-2% to factor in TC’s Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part,certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensationwas, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGMRatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852)3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value