可再生能源推动绿色工业化研究报告

Study Report onRenewable Energy DATENovember 7, 2025 REFERENCE0794652 SIGNATURE PAGE Study Report on Renewable Energy Driving 0794652 Fernanda BrittoConsulting Partner Isabel Castelo BrancoConsulting Senior Associate ERM Brazil Thera Corporate TowerAvenida Engenheiro Luis Carlos Berrini, 105 EXECUTIVESUMMARY The studyRenewable Energy Driving Green Industrialization, conducted by ERM for the GlobalWind Energy Council (GWEC), assesses the strategic role of offshore wind energy as asourceto Startingfrom the observation that Brazil’s power sector already has a high level ofdecarbonization—with approximately 89% of installed capacity based on renewable sources— Brazil’s national climate targets reinforce the need for this trajectory. The country’s NationallyDetermined Contribution (NDC) sets greenhouse gas emission reduction goals of 48% by 2025,53% by 2030, and between 59% and 67% by 2035 (based on 2005 levels), aiming for climate On the demand side, the National Energy Plan 2050 (PNE 2050) projects substantial growth:electricity demand could reach approximately 1,600 TWh by 2040 and 2,100 TWh by 2050—roughly three times the demand in 2015 (base year). To support this level of consumption,the This process faces significant structural challenges: the growing penetration of intermittentsources imposes additional requirements on power balancing—particularly during peak periods—and increases the need for expanded storage capacity and grid infrastructure to accommodate In this context, offshore wind emerges as a strategic alternative. Brazil’s technical potential issignificant: the studyScenarios for the Development of Offshore Wind in Brazil(World Bank,2024) estimates that offshore wind generation offers important complementarity to hydropower—often being seasonally countercyclical and showing lower interannual variability—which Operationally, offshore wind’s capacity factors and hourly/monthly generation profiles tend tocomplement other sources (hydro, onshore wind, solar) in many regions, improving regional time,large-scale deployment presents challenges and opportunities:equipment transportlogistics, leveraging port hubs near major consumption centers (which reduces transmissionlosses and facilitates integration), and the need for a regulatory frameworkthat removes barriers Thus, for Brazil to maintain and expand its predominantly clean energy matrix while meetingprojected demand growth over the coming decades, offshore wind must be treated as a strategiccomponent of energy policy. Its potential contribution—both in scaleand in complementarity Quantitatively, thecurrent estimates indicate that offshore wind will evolve from a marginalcontribution in the 2020s to a material role starting in the mid-2030s. Based on a joint analysis PROJECTIONS OF THE BRAZILIAN ELECTRICITY MATRIX: DEMAND, DEFINITIONS AND ACRONYMS Electricity demand:The amount of electrical energy required by consumers over a given Energy demand:The total amount of energy (electric, thermal, oil, gas, etc.) needed to support Decarbonization:The process of reducing fossil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the energy Green corridors:Logisticsand commercial routes with low GHG emissions, typically involving Low-carbon economy:An economic model aimed at minimizing greenhouse gas emissions.Renewable energy:Energy derived from natural sources that are continuously replenished, Cleanenergy or generation:Energy production with low emissions of pollutants and Climate neutrality:A state in which GHG emissions are offset or eliminated, resulting in no net Electricity matrix:A subset of the energy matrix representing only the sources used to Energy transition:The gradual shift from a fossil fuel-based energy matrix to renewable and ANEEL–Brazilian Electricity Regulatory AgencyBNDES–National Bank for Economic and Social DevelopmentCBAM–Carbon Border Adjustment MechanismCCAT–High Voltage Direct CurrentCRVE–Voluntary Emission Reduction CertificateDLS–Sustainability Limits DeclarationEPE–Energy Research OfficeFNE Sol–Northeast Constitutional Financing Fund–Solar LineGW–Gigawatt (1 GW = 1,000 megawatts)Average GW–Average power generated or consumed over timeGHG–Greenhouse GasesIBAMA–Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural ResourcesIPI–Tax on Industrialized ProductsITMO–Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes MME–Ministry of Mines and Energy MMA–Ministry of the Environment NDC–Nationally Determined Contribution ONS–NationalPowerSystem Operator PATEN–National Energy Transition Acceleration Plan PCH–Small Hydropower Plant PELP–Long-Term Strategic Plan:a public policy instrument used to guide the strategic PIS/COFINS–Social Integration Program / Contribution for Social Security Financing PDE–Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan PNE–National Energy Plan: strategic document developed by Brazil’s Energy Research Office(EPE) under the guidance of the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME). It outlines the long-term S