NGFS关于气候不作为经济成本的声明

In thelead-up tothe 30thConference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30), we,members of the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS),issue this declaration to highlight the risingeconomic costs of climate inaction and to reaffirm our commitment to supporting a well-managedtransition. Ten years after the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the world stands at a critical juncture.Whileimportantprogress has been achieved, the gap between currentgreenhouse gasemissiontrajectoriesand the objectives oftheUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its ParisAgreement remains wide1.Scientific evidence confirms that the remaining window to limit global warmingto 1.5°C is almost closed, requiring ambitious Nationally DeterminedContributionsthat are effectivelyimplemented2. This is a moment to re-anchor global action in evidence, credibility, and coordination. As a coalition of central banks and supervisory authorities, we recognize the mountingevidence that delayed climate action leads to material economic and financial risks with implicationsfor our core mandates.Whiletransitioning to net-zero emissions will have a cost, it will be much lower thanthe cost of facing increasingly severe and frequent weather events and long-term shifts in climate patterns3. The recently released NGFS short-term scenarios show thatregional extreme weather eventsmay generate material GDP losses, with effects on the global economyover a 3 to 5 years horizon4. For instance,underan adversescenario looking atphysical risk only, regional climate disasters could cause largeGDP losses at the regional level, ranging from 6% in Asia up to 12.5% of GDP in Africa5.Without timely andcoordinated action, such shockscouldlead to global spillovers by disrupting food systems, energy markets and supply chains, resulting in broader macro-financial instability. An early and globally coordinatedimplementation of climate policies can limit the negative effects of a transition to a low-carbon economy,even in the short term: early action could halve the cost of the transition by 2030, at 0.5% of global GDPagainst 1.3% in the case of a three-year delay6. Thepotentialimpactson GDPwould havetangible implications, especially for the mostvulnerable economies, which face specific challenges in tackling climate change.This means thatdelayedglobal action could translate into reduced economic activity, rising unemployment, lowerdisposable income,and reduced fiscal spaceeven within a five-year timeframe.Moreover, existingestimates do not yet account for potential tipping points or the broader impacts of nature degradation, The transition requires a whole-of-economy effort–both from public and private actors–anda sound and resilient financial systemis essential to providethe enabling environment for that effort. Through the adoption of scenario analysis, climate disclosure standards and transition planning, financialinstitutionscan factor climate and nature-related risks into the strategies and operations, and enable a smooth and effective transition towards a sustainable economy7,8.This will also help align financial flowswithlong-term transition objectives, including mitigation and adaptation efforts, and will generate a double As members of the NGFS, we remain committed to supporting this collective effortin line withour mandatesto maintain a stable macroeconomic and financial environment.We will continueour jointeffortsto providefree and openly accessiblescience-basedanalyses anddata, forward-looking tools, andpractical guidance, as well as seek tofoster academic cooperation and cross-disciplinary capacity building References The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) was launched at the Paris One Planet Summit on12 December 2017. It represents a group of central banks and supervisors, which are willing to share bestpractices and contribute to the development of environment and climate risk management in the financialsector, and to mobilise mainstream finance to support the transition toward a sustainable economy. TheNGFS brings together 146 central banks and supervisors and 23 observers. The NGFS is chaired by Sabine For more details, visit theNGFS website,LinkedIn account, and2024 Annual Report,or contact the NGFSSecretariat at the Banque de France:sec.ngfs@banque-france.fr. Press Office at the Banque de France: +33