中国电动汽车跟踪

EquitiesAutomobiles & Auto Peak-season momentumexpected toregain strength China ◆Flattish October m-o-m, frontloaded demand andincreasingOEMincentivesshouldcontinue to fuelhigh-season momentum Yuqian Ding*Head of China Autos ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedyuqian.ding@hsbc.com.hk ◆Weremainbullish onthebatteryupcycleand boomingautonomousdrivingdemand;physicalAI is gainingtraction Li Yang*Analyst, China AutosThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedli01.yang@hsbc.com.hk ◆We preferresilientsuppliers over OEMs;among OEMs, weprefer Geely and BYDA/H (allratedBuy) Policy-driven peak seasonwithflattishOctobersalesm-o-m.Domestic EVsalesbooked-1%/7%m-o-m/y-o-ygrowthin October,mainly due tofewer working daysinOctober(“extended golden week”ofMid-Autumn FestivalandNational Day fell entirely inOctober) and tightening of trade-in subsidies in key regions(mainly inJiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai Region).Weexpect momentum toregain strength in4Q25due to frontloaded Elaine Chen* (Reg. No. S1700524030001)Analyst, China AutosHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedelaine.chen@hsbcqh.com.cn Michel Liu* (Reg. No. S1700524090001)Analyst, China AutosHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedmichel.m.liu@hsbcqh.com.cn Brian Yu*Associate, China Auto Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedbrian.d.yu@hsbc.com.hk The tidehas turnedfor batteryafter a tough two years.The utilisation rate isrising acrossthebattery segment and supply chain, and pricing recovery isunderway.Leading batteryproducers havealready announcedthestartof anewcapacity expansion cycle,given growingconvictionaboutdemand. Meanwhile, thesupply chain, for example, theSeparator segment,isdisciplinedaboutcapacity * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations expansion as profitabilityremains low, thisslowercapacity expansionmight support Commercial deployment of autonomousdriving(AD) and physical AI (robotaxiand robotics) isgainingmomentum.AD is close to ademandinflection,robotaxisare entering early commercialisation, whilerobotics showcases some early mass-production signals,but remainsa longer term story. With policy catching up, rising consumer adoption and key milestones from keyplayers, these developments could Stock highlights.Giventheweak auto demand andintensecompetition, we preferresilientsuppliersover OEMs.Overall, thebattery segmentislikely to benefit fromthe upcycle. We likeCATL A/Hfor its growth visibility and resilience–especially ifwe seeanydemand volatility in early 2026.We alsolikecritical enablers ofautonomous driving,suchasHorizon Robotics,which is well positioned to captureautonomous drivinggrowth across OEMs, andJoysongivenitsrelatively higheroverseas exposure amid weak domestic beta and robotics optionality.Among OEMs,we preferGeelyas ithasbeengainingmarket shareinEVs,andforastrong product Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThisreport must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Sector highlights Most frequently discussed charts of the month Source: CAAM (including estimates), HSBC Source: CPCA, HSBC Demand forecast changes We raise our2025 China passenger car demand growth forecastto 6%from 0%previously,factoring in the positive impact of government subsidies. However, weexpecta demand pull-forwardinto 2025 at year-end, driven by the expected subsidy phase-out. Consequently, we lowerour2026demand growthforecast to-3%from-1%. We also trim our EV penetration estimates due to weaker-than-expected EV sales growth in 10M25, partly attribute to the industry’s anti-involution trend. Our Where we are in terms of valuation Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The followinganalyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s)of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and anyother Important disclosures Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (“HSBC”) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stockshoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating From 23rd