FQ326季度回顾 - 我想握住你的手...

Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com U.S. SemiconductorsNVIDIA Corp Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperformPrice TargetNVDA Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com 275.00 USD(225.00OLD) NVIDIA (NVDA): FQ326 recap - I want to hold your hand... NVIDIA's FQ3 results solidly beat ($57,006M/$1.30 vs Street at $55,189M/$1.26).Datacenter ($51.2B) was well above expectations on continued momentum in Blackwell(particularly Blackwell Ultra which crossed over Blackwell in the quarter), with computerevenues notably strong and up ~27% QoQ. Networking also grew ~13% QoQ and ~162%YoY. H20 revenues were negligible (~$50M) given continued geopolitical headwinds in China(which overall made up only ~5% of sales). ProVis was also above expectations, while Gaming Close Date19 Nov 2025NVDA Close Price (USD)186.52Price Target (USD)275.00Upside/(Downside)47%52-Week Range212.19/86.62SPX6,642.16FYEJanDiv Yield0.0%Market Cap (USD) (B)4,532.44EV (USD) (B)4,486.24 And amid high expectations guidance landed well above consensus ($65B/~$1.50 vs Street$62.0B/$1.44), at the more bullish end of whispers. We believe datacenter outlook is impliedin the $59B+ range (above the Street at ~$56.7B) with gross margins (as promised) gettingback to 75%. Importantly, the company reiterated their visibility on ~$500B in Blackwell/Rubin revenues across CY25/26 which suggests a materially higher run-rate for datacentersales into next year (at least $300B, and likely more). They also indicated gross margins next We believe investors were anticipating a good guide given the positive newsflow in the AIspace recently (capex trends, partnership announcements, sovereign deals etc). And yet,AI stocks have taken a breather recently on the back of sustainability and “bubble” fears.Hence, more than just good numbers, we believe investors needed some hand-holding fromJensen which he provided in spades given his comments around “off the charts” demand,commentary on the company’s competitive positioning and roadmap, and stark reaffirmation Perhaps the AI trade is not yet dead after all…We materially raise estimates, and take ourprice target to $275 (33x applied to higher FY27/28 avg EPS). We rate NVDA Outperform. Investment Implications NVDA (OP, $275):The datacenter opportunity is enormous, and still early, with materialupside still possible. See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website. DETAILS Our updated model can be found here: NVDA Model. NVIDIA's FQ3 results solidly beat ($57,006M/$1.30 vs Street at $55,189M/$1.26). Datacenter ($51.2B) was wellabove expectations on continued momentum in Blackwell (particularly Blackwell Ultra which crossed over Blackwellin the quarter), with compute revenues notably strong and up ~27% QoQ. Networking also grew ~13% QoQ and~162% YoY. H20 revenues were negligible (~$50M) given continued geopolitical headwinds in China (which overallmade up only ~5% of sales). ProVis was also above expectations, while Gaming and Auto were a bit below. Gross •Revenues of $57,006M were above consensus expectations($55,189M), and guidance ($54,000M) (Exhibit 1). Thebeat overall was driven by Datacenter, which reached record levels in the quarter. ProVis was also above expectations, while •Datacenter segment revenuesof $51,215M, were up 25% QoQ and up 66% YoY and was above sell-side consensusat $49,343M as Blackwell Ultra continues to ramp meaningfully, with GB300 crossing over GB200 in the quarter andcomprising ~2/3 of Blackwell revenues. H20 sales were negligible in the quarter at ~$50M; Hopper overall was ~$2B.Compute revenues were up ~27% QoQ and ~56% YoY to ~$43B, and Networking revenues were up ~13% QoQ and ~162% •Gaming saleswere flattish QoQ and up 30% YoY to $4,265M, and were below consensus at $4,425M (Exhibit 2) thoughwith Management still citing continued strength in demand for Blackwell parts. •Professional Visualization salesof $760M up 26% QoQ and grew 56% YoY, well above consensus at $613M. •Automotive salesof $592M were up 1% QoQ and up 32% YoY, below consensus at $621M. •OEM & IP salescame in at $174M for the quarter, above consensus estimates of $162M, flattish QoQ and up 79% YoY Non-GAAP Gross marginsof 73.6%were a touch above guidance of 73.5% and roughly inline to just a hair below •Non-GAAP Opex of $4,215Mwere a little higher than consensus ($4,164M) and roughly in-line with guidance at $4.2B. Non-GAAP Operating margin of 66.2%was a touch above consensus of 66.1% (Exhibit 4). •Non-GAAP tax rate came in at 17.1%,above guidance of 16.5%. •Non-GAAP EPS of $1.30, was above consensus at $1.26. By segment:Graphics revenues came in at $6.1B this quarter, up 51% YoY. Compute & Networking sales were $50.9B, up •Inventory daysincreased to ~118 days vs 105 last quarter, and inventory dollars i