2025年第三季度银行高管商业前景调查报告

INTRODUCTION Welcome to IntraFi’s Bank Executive Business OutlookSurvey report for the third quarter of 2025. In this edition of the survey—the 40th published by IntraFi—anoverwhelming majority of bankers say a Fed governorshould only be removed from office if there is provenimpropriety. We also asked bankers about the importance of This report, with responses from 441 banks, discusses theseresults and other issues in more detail. We hope the information provided is insightful and helpful.As always, if you have any thoughts or questions, pleasecontact Rob Blackwell, Chief Content Officer & Head of MARK JACOBSENCofounder & CEOIntraFi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A year ago, we asked bankers whatchanges they would favor to limit the Fed’sindependence. While some bankers supportedideas like shortening the appointment term ofthe Fed chair (24%), the majority (55%) wanted A large majority of respondents (88%) believeproven improper activity (prior to or whilein office) is the only standard presidentsshould use to fire a Fed governor. Only 6%said that alleged but unproven improperactivity is an acceptable standard, and just4% agreed that anything the president Today, bankers support protecting thecentral bank’s independence from politicalinterference even more strongly. Ninety-five percent report that maintaining Fed Looking beyond the Fed, banks handlelarge amounts of highly sensitive personal numbers, credit card details, and transactionhistories. As regulated institutions, banks areexpected to invest in and maintain robustsecurity measures and protocols. Therefore,when selecting third-party vendors, it is notsurprising that bankers list the potential forcustomer data breaches as their top concern Deposit Competition:Fifty-eight percentof bankers indicate deposit competitionhas remained steady, and nearly the Funding Costs:A majority (77%) saw adecrease in their bank’s funding costscompared to 12 months ago, while 80%project their bank’s funding costs will drop Loan Demand:Forty-six percent ofbankers experienced higher demand.Bankers are slightly more optimistic about Along those same lines, understandingcybersecurity risks, particularly any potentialvulnerabilities concerning confidential Access to Capital:Seventy-fourpercent note that their access tocapital has remained steady. Roughlythe same number (75%), expect no predict a decline80% predict deposit expect that loan Banker Perspectives Each quarter, we pose a series of questions based on current events affecting thebanking sector. This quarter we asked about issues related to the Fed’s independence as STANDARD FOR REMOVING FED GOVERNORS The Federal Reserve Act, which established the agency itself in 1913, empowers the presidentto remove Fed governorsfor cause.” In your view, what standard should be used by future A strong majority of respondents (88%) state that future presidents should only remove a Fedgovernor in the case of proven, and not alleged, impropriety. Only 4% indicated that the President FED CONTROL OF MONETARY POLICY In recent weeks, some policymakers have questioned the value of Fed independence withregard to monetary policy, suggesting it may no longer be necessary. In your view, how Close to 100% of bankers surveyed agree that it is important to protectmonetary policy from political interference. Ninety-five percent say theFed’s independence in regard to monetary policy is important, with 75% ofrespondents noting this is very important. Only 5%, which were exclusively FED CONTROL OF REGULATORY POLICYMAKING In your view, how important is Fed independence when it comes to bank regulatory policymaking? Bankers were almost as unified on the question of Fed authority over regulatorypolicy. More than half (56%) say it is very important (and 35% state that it issomewhat important) that the Federal Reserve has independent control over IMPORTANCE OF MANAGING RISK: UNDERSTANDING CYBERSECURITY RISKS Banks that fail to adequately vet and oversee their third-party vendors are highly likely to drawunfavorable regulatory attention. Please rank the importance of managing the following third- Managing third-party risk is crucial for protecting banks from financial, reputational,and operational damage. When it comes to managing third-party risks, a majority IMPORTANCE OF MANAGING RISK: CUSTOMER DATA What are your biggest worries when choosing a third-party vendor? Please rank the followingconcerns from greatest concern (1) to least (4). Banks invest heavily to protect customer data, so it’s not surprising that customerdata breaches are the top concern (47%) when selecting third-party vendors. Thisis followed closely by vendor problems or failures that could cause reputational,operational, monetary, or regulatory risks (38%). Hidden or unanticipated expenses Toplines This is a topline overview of banker expectations forthe 12 months ahead in four key categories. DEPOSIT COMPETITION Thirty-two percent of responding bankers report