亚太半导体 - 推进技术和产能路线图巩固AI增长前景

17 November 2025 EquityAsia-Pacific AI computeis now the key engine of growth (37% of global semis revenue in’25 vs.10% in’20), with data center investment by hyperscalers projected to deliver 24% CAGRto US$1.2tn by’30, driving high performance computing demand and sustaining orderbacklogs for advanced nodes and packaging. Outside AI, the traditional tech devices(smartphone, PC and TV) units are stabilizing, while broad-based automotive/industrial Haas Liu>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Taiwan)+886 2 2376 3727 Mike Yang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Taiwan)+886 2 2376 3729 Atechnology-led supply growth keeps landscape benign Foundry and OSATcould continue their accelerated investment through’26-27, focusingon advanced technologies. We estimate global foundry capex will grow 22% YoY in‘26to US$71bn, driven by TSMC’s aggressive expansion on N3, N2 and A16 (+80k WPM or5% of its installed base). With sales outpacing cost on fully booked capacity and modestprice hike, the capital intensity for front-end manufacturing should stay measured at~35%. The back-end capex, led by TSMC and its OSAT partners (ASE, Amkor and KYEC),should grow 45% YoY to US$19bn in’26 for CoWoS, WMCM and testing. The capital Robert Cheng>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Taiwan)+886 2 2376 3731 Simon Woo, CFA>>ResearchAnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul)+82 2 3707 0554 Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 1755 TSMC– core enabler of the structural expansion TSMC’s sustained front-end process and packaging leadership positions it at the centerof AI compute scaling and system-level innovation, enabling it to further gain productionshare in major AI enablers and strengthen pricing power. We project its sales will growat 21% CAGR (vs. COGs +19%) from‘25-27, with HPC/AI reaching 70% of its sales (vs.58% in’25). On better business mix more than offsetting fast growing variable anddepreciation cost from capex hike (BofAe US$50bn/US$57bn in’26/’27) for node Didier Scemama>>ResearchAnalystMLI (UK)+44 20 7995 6751 Mikio Hirakawa>>Research AnalystBofAS Japan+81 3 6225 7989 Selectivity matters as the cycle deepens Daley Li,CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 5365 The valuation for the Asia semiconductor sectorshould stay bifurcated, with AI-leveredleaders at the upper band of their range, driven by continued earnings upgrade vs. mid-cycle for the firms with high exposure in the mature tech products. Our pecking order:TSMC (dominant technology and scale with room for re-rating from current mid-cycle),Chroma (dual engines in power and semis support earnings upgrade), GPTC (beneficiaryof advanced packaging growth at attractive valuation) and MediaTek (mobile/consumer See glossary of acronyms and otherabbreviations at the end of this report. Related research: Chroma ATE: Riding the AI wave:Equipment leverage kicks into gear;initiate at Buy 17 November 2025 This research report provides general information only. No part of this report may be usedor reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or otherpersons without the express written consent of BofA Securities. Kinik: Polishing the future: emergingleader in advanced node >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Taiwan SemiconductorManufacturing Co.: Compounding Contents Industry consolidation leads to a more concentrated supply and spendingprofile8Back-end capital intensity still on the rise9TSMC deepening front-end technology leadership with global diversification10Advanced packaging capacity growth to unlock demand potential12Street underestimating capex outlook for TSMC in 202613TSMC’s capital intensity to stay high for longer amid strong HPC demand15Geographic diversification also drives spending though smaller scale couldimpact capex efficiency17 AI demand remains engine of the semiconductor industry upturn19 Aggressive AI target by hyperscalers and governments sustains hardwareinvestments19HPC semiconductor demand to see continued strength along with capex onAI infrastructure21Cloud AI demand requiring strong computing power lift advanced foundryTAM22HPC customers set to lead the growth25Solid demand and measured supply growth keeps utilization high acrossadvanced front-end and packaging28 Burden from overseas fabs production under control33Well-managed cost structure despite ramping depreciation and variable cost34GM at high-50%+, backed by strong advanced node pricin