美国国家电力行业面临风险

MEGHAN OSTERTAG|NOVEMBER 2025 Instead of treating manufacturing as a monolith to be revived, policymakers must focus onnational power industries. These industries protect U.S. national defense and economic security, KEY TAKEAWAYS The strongest case for revitalizing U.S. manufacturing is national power. National power industries, which include enabling, dual-use, and defense industries, arethose that enable a strong military and give the United States leverage over other nations. Enabling and dual-use industries experienced the steepest drops in employment,establishments, capital investment, and value added between 2007 and 2022, outpacing When adjusting for inflation, real value added fell across all manufacturing categories,with enabling industries declining by over 30 percent, the largest drop among power Defense industries, protected from global competition by federal demand, saw capitalexpenditures, sales, and value-added grow more than other power industries had. While the United States struggles to revive its manufacturing sector, China is focused onachieving dominance in advanced industries, giving it leverage over the United States. Unchecked Chinese dominance in power industries will translate into sustained costadvantages, persistent price, profit, and employment losses for American advanced CONTENTS Key Takeaways................................................................................................................... 1Introduction....................................................................................................................... 2Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 4Empirical Analysis.............................................................................................................. 7Implications for U.S. Power............................................................................................... 15 INTRODUCTION In recent years, there has been increasing concern about the health of U.S. manufacturing, withthe voices that long argued that manufacturing doesn’t matter finally becoming a minority. But why does manufacturing matter? The answer to that question shapes the kind ofmanufacturing policy a nation has. The conventional view is that manufacturing matters becauseit provides good jobs, especially for non-college-educated workers; drives economic growth Manufacturing jobs now pay, on average, slightly less than jobs in the overall economy do.1Andmanufacturing labor productivity has grown more slowly than overall economy productivity for over a decade.2With regard to the employment multiplier, this is largely irrelevant given that theU.S. economy is at or near full employment, except in economic downturns, and even then theFederal Reserve responds with monetary policy. As for innovation, there is no reason foreignmanufacturers can’t drive global innovation. However, a strong manufacturing sector does help National power industries drive growth and both national and economic security, and must be the The principal reason for concern with manufacturing should be national power. Certain industriesenable a strong military or give the United States leverage over other nations, especially China.At the same time, Chinese dominance in other industries would give it enormous leverage over Traditional measures of manufacturing health treat the sector as a monolith, but some industriesare far more critical to U.S. power than others are. The United States is at risk of losing its national power industries, which are essential to the country’s economic and national security. Ifthese industries were to be lost, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to regain them. In a novel framework, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) hasclassified all 970 industries delineated by the North American Industry Classification System(NAICS) at the six-digit level on a continuum of defense, dual-use, enabling, and nonstrategic. Most industries are not power industries because most firms primarily serve domestic demandand are not exposed to international competition or predation. Consider the neighborhood pizzashop or local bank. If these companies go out of business, some jobs and money will be lost, but Some traded industries are nonstrategic, meaning their loss would not weaken U.S. power orprovide leverage to China. Case in point: wind turbines. If the Chinese dominated all windturbine production and wanted to cut off exports to the United States to force U.S. governmentpolicy change, the impact would be minimal. Utilities would simply utilize alternative energy- The principal reason for concern with manufacturing should be national power. Compare that to a dual-use industry such as semiconductors. If China dominated this industry—which it is seeking to do—the simple threat of cutting off access to semiconductors would leadpolic