利用自动识别系统数据量化台风Phanfone对菲律宾港口活动的影响（英）

ADB Economics Working Paper Series Quantifying the Impact of Typhoon Phanfone on PhilippinePort Activity Using Automatic Identification System Data Madhavi Pundit, Immanuel Sin, Paolo Magnata,R. Duncan McIntosh, and Priscille Villanueva Madhavi Pundit (mpundit@adb.org) isa senior economist and Priscille Villanueva(pvillanueva@adb.org) is a senior economics officerat the Economic Research and Development ImpactDepartment, Asian Development Bank (ADB).R. Duncan McIntosh (rmcintosh@adb.org) is a seniorregional maritime specialist at Sectors Department 1, No. 817 | November 2025 TheADB Economics Working Paper Seriespresents research in progress to elicit commentsand encourage debate on development issuesin Asia and the Pacific. The views expressedare those of the authors and do not necessarily Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444 Some rights reserved. Published in 2025. ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (PDF)Publication Stock No. WPS250438-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS250438-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisions This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Note:In this publication, “₱” refers to Philippine peso and “$” refers to United States dollars. ABSTRACT The automatic identification system (AIS) is a short-range coastal tracking system used toidentify ships and their speed and location worldwide. This case study leverages high frequencyAIS data to analyze the impact of typhoons on port activity in the Philippines. Maritime transportplays a pivotal role in facilitating trade and transportation of goods and passengers in anarchipelago like the Philippines. The Philippines typically encounters 20 tropical cyclones each 1. Introduction and Motivation Maritime trade is a crucialdriver of the global economy,acting as a catalyst forinternational commerce and fostering economic expansion. According to the United Nations Ports serve as gateways, linking domestic and international markets and connectingproducers and consumers. But their location in coastal areas makes them susceptible to theimpacts of extreme weather events (Verschuur et al., 2020; McIntosh and Becker, 2017; Beckeret al., 2013; Ng et al., 2015; Notteboom and Rodrigue, 2008). The efficiency and functionality of The occurrence of typhoons poses significant challenges to maritime trade and portoperations (Balakrishnan et al., 2022; McIntosh and Becker, 2019). Typhoons, known for theirregularity and intensity, have a disruptive impact on port activities, leading to delays in vessel Frequent typhoons are a common occurrence in Asia and the Pacific, causing significantdisruptions, especially in locations along the Pacific Rim such as the Philippines. The countryalready experiences an average of approximately 20 typhoons each year, and climate change isanticipated to decrease their overall frequency while intensifying their severity (Cinco et al., 2016;Merz et al, 2024). When Typhoon Phanfone (locally known as Typhoon Ursula) hit the Philippines By convention, disaster risk management offices often rely on post-disaster needsassessment (PDNA) reports to quantify the impact of typhoons or any other disaster. However,conducting a PDNA poses challenges, including producing a high-quality assessment reportquickly, coordinating diverse partners under government leadership, and navigating fluid political The study seeks to assess the impact of typhoons on seaport