腾讯控股2025年三季度业绩初评：业绩超预期

Tencent Holdings 3Q25 First Take: a clean beat Maintain Rating: BUY | PO: 780.00 HKD | Price: 657.00 HKD Ads strong, game inline, EPS beat, capex down QoQ 13 November 2025 Tencent deliveredsolid results after market close today. Topline grew by 15% YoY toRMB192.9bn, 2% ahead of consensus. Non-IFRS net income came in at RMB70.6bn, up18% YoY and 7% ahead of consensus.Bottom line:we are pleased with the solidexecution especially on ads/game, and are excited to see mgmt. being more vocal onHunyuan capability enhancement/Yuanbao adoption/agentic AI roll-out within Weixin. Welook for more details from the earnings call on capex spending plan into 26E, as EquityAlex Liu>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)alex.liu3@bofa.com Joanna Du>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)joanna.du@bofa.com Key things to look for in the earnings call 1)Outlook on capex trend into 26E; 2) AI strategy and relevant investment scale; 3) AIuse case and features roll-out timeline in Weixin; 4) ads revenue momentum into 26E; 5) 3Q25 results details •Online game–Domestic game revenue decelerated to 15% YoY growth (17% YoYin 2Q25), on high base from DNF Mobile last year. International game revenue grew43% YoY (or 42% on a CC basis) vs. 35% in 2Q25, driven by higher revenue fromSupercell games. Deferred revenue growth was healthy at 11% YoY and 0.5% QoQ. •Social network–revenue was up 5% YoY. Tencent Video subscribers reached114mn, flat QoQ. VAS gross margin was 61% vs. 60% in 2Q25 and 57% in 3Q24. •Marketing services–revenue was up 21% YoY (20% YoY in 2Q25) driven byhigher ad impressions and eCPM with AI powered targeting. Online marketing grossmargin was 57% vs. 58% in 2Q25 and 53% in 3Q24. •FBS- revenue growth decelerated slightly to 10% YoY, driven by payment volumerecovery and new AI/cloud enterprise offering. Company noted enterprise revenuegrowth remained at teens YoY in 3Q25 (teens% YoY in 2Q25). FBS gross marginwas 50% vs. 52% in 2Q25 and 48% in 3Q24. DNF: Dungeon & FighterFBS: Fintech and business servicesVAS: value-added services •Profitability–Overall GM was 56% vs. 57% in 2Q25 & 53% in 3Q24. Sales andmarketing expense was up 22% YoY, at 6% of total revenue (5% in 2Q25 & 6% in3Q24). General & Admin expense was up 18% YoY, at 18% of total revenue (17% in2Q25 & 17% in 3Q24). Non-IFRS share of profits of associates and joint ventureswas RMB10.3bn vs. RMB6.3bn in 2Q25 & RMB8.5bn in 3Q24. •Others–Capex was RMB13.0bn in 3Q25 vs. RMB19.1bn in 2Q25 and RMB17.1bnin 3Q24. Tencent repurchased HKD21.1bn (USD2.7bn) value of stock in 3Q25. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of Price objective basis & risk Tencent Holdings (TCTZF) Our PO of HK$780 is based on 1) 15x PE to online game, 2) 24x PE on VAS (ex game), 3)25x PE on online ads, 4) 20x PE on fintech, 5) 5x PS on cloud, 6) investment holdingvalue plus net cash (HKD116 per share). Downside risks: 1) competition from new traffic platforms and media formats, 2)regulation on fintech, collection, sharing and use of data, competition, online games,instant messaging, wireless services, app registration, minors protection. Intervention orownership by the authority could also introduce uncertainty in business decisions. Gameregulation turns out worse than expected, 3) weaker new games momentum, 4) Upside risks: 1) better and faster than expected macro recovery, 2) beat of new gameperformance, 3) synergy from ecosystem open-up with other internet platforms, 4)ecommerce business ramp up, 5) upside risk to investor sentiment if Co. can be removed Analyst Certification I, Alex Liu, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accuratelyreflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. I also certify that nopart of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific Disclosures Important Disclosures The Investment Opinion System is contained at the end of the report under the heading "Fundamental Equity OpinionKey". Dark grey shading indicates the security is restricted with the opinion suspended. Medium greyshading indicates the security is under review with the opinion withdrawn. Light grey shading indicates the security is not covered. Chart is current as of a date no more than one trading day prior to the date of the report. Equity Investment Rating Distribution: Global Group (as of 30 Sep 2025) FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY OPINION KEY: Opinions include a Volatility Risk Rating, an Investment Rating and an Income Rating. VOLATILITY RISK RATINGS, indicatorsof potential price fluctuation, are: