公共支出与包容性增长：跨经济体的实证分析

Gazi Salah Uddin, Anh H. Le, Md. Bokhtiar Hasan, John Beirne, and Donghyun Park ADB Economics Working Paper Series Public Spending and Inclusive Growth:An Empirical Analysis Across Economies Gazi Salah Uddin (gazi.salah.uddin@liu.se) is aprofessor of financial economics at LinköpingUniversity, Sweden and Norwegian University ofLife Sciences. Anh H. Le (le@imfs-frankfurt.de)is a research affiliate at the Institute for Monetaryand Financial Stability, Goethe University Frankfurt.Md. Bokhtiar Hasan (bokhtiar_bank@yahoo.com)is an associate professor at the Islamic University, Gazi Salah Uddin, Anh H. Le, Md. Bokhtiar Hasan,John Beirne, and Donghyun Park No. 815 | October 2025 TheADB Economics Working Paper Seriespresents research in progress to elicit commentsand encourage debate on development issuesin Asia and the Pacific. The views expressedare those of the authors and do not necessarily Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444 Some rights reserved. Published in 2025. ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (PDF)Publication Stock No. WPS250423-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS250423-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisions This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use ABSTRACT We investigate the effects of different components of government spending on inclusivegrowth. More specifically, we consider the inclusive impact of public spending on environmentalprotection, health, education, housing, and social protection, all of which can conceivably promoteinclusive growth. For our empirical analysis, we apply panel regressions and local projections toa comprehensive database of 191 economies between 1980 and 2023. Our evidence indicates Keywords:government spending, inclusive growth, income inequality, developed anddeveloping economies JEL codes:D63,E62, O23, O47 1 Given rising income inequality around the world, inclusive growth that benefits the broaderpopulation has become a top priority for academics and policymakers. In particular, the incomegap between the rich and the poor within economies shows no signs of narrowing [United Nations(UN)1]. In recent decades, income disparities have persisted or even deteriorated despitesustained economic growth in many economies (OECD, 2015). Supporting this observation,Figure 1 illustrates a significant reduction in income inequality between economies from 1980 to2020, indicating a convergence in average incomes. Conversely, income inequality within The association between fiscal spending and inequality is multifaceted and heavilyaffected by an economy’s institutional, economic, and social structures. Total public expenditureshave traditionally been viewed as a redistributive mechanism that could reduce inequality(Doumbia and Kinda, 2019). However, recent studies indicate that the influence of public The stylized facts of the fiscal spending–inequality–inclusive growth nexus are presentedin Figures 2 and 3 and Table A1 in the Appendix.2Most economies with the lowest inequality tendto have relatively high public expenditure (% of gross domestic product (GDP)) along with highinequality-adjusted Human Development Index (HDI) scores. This pattern may reflect the impactof equity-promoting fiscal policies on inclusive growth and more equal income distributions. At thesame time, most economies with the highest income inequality show lower public spending andmarkedly lower HDI scores. Furthermore, the spending type statistics (Figure 3) indicate that Despite extensive research on fiscal s