公共支出与包容性增长：跨经济体的实证分析（英）

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ACROSS ECONOMIES Gazi Salah Uddin, Anh H. Le, Md. Bokhtiar Hasan, John Beirne, and Donghyun Park ADB ECONOMICSWORKING PAPER SERIES ADB Economics Working Paper Series Public Spending and Inclusive Growth:An Empirical Analysis Across Economies Gazi Salah Uddin (gazi.salah.uddin@liu.se) is aprofessor of financial economics at LinköpingUniversity, Sweden and Norwegian University ofLife Sciences. Anh H. Le (le@imfs-frankfurt.de)is a research affiliate at the Institute for Monetaryand Financial Stability, Goethe University Frankfurt.Md. Bokhtiar Hasan (bokhtiar_bank@yahoo.com)is an associate professor at the Islamic University,Bangladesh. John Beirne (jbeirne@adb.org)is a principal economist and Donghyun Park(dpark@adb.org) is an economic advisor at theEconomic Research and Development ImpactDepartment, Asian Development Bank. Gazi Salah Uddin, Anh H. Le, Md. Bokhtiar Hasan,John Beirne, and Donghyun Park No. 815 | October 2025 TheADB Economics Working Paper Seriespresents research in progress to elicit commentsand encourage debate on development issuesin Asia and the Pacific. The views expressedare those of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect the views and policies of ADB orits Board of Governors or the governmentsthey represent. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2025. ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (PDF)Publication Stock No. WPS250423-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS250423-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. ABSTRACT We investigate the effects of different components of government spending on inclusivegrowth. More specifically, we consider the inclusive impact of public spending on environmentalprotection, health, education, housing, and social protection, all of which can conceivably promoteinclusive growth. For our empirical analysis, we apply panel regressions and local projections toa comprehensive database of 191 economies between 1980 and 2023. Our evidence indicatesthat equity-promoting government spending reduces income inequality, as measured by the Giniindex, and improves human development indicators. Moreover, our analysis reveals that poorerhouseholds benefit disproportionately, suggesting that targeted fiscal expenditures can promoteequity. Notably, the inclusive effects are most pronounced in advanced economies, where robustfiscal frameworks support and amplify such effects. In contrast, emerging and developingeconomies experience more modest gains. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of well-designed public spending programs for equitable growth. Finally, we conduct state-dependentlocal projections and regional subsample analysis. Keywords:government spending, inclusive growth, income inequality, developed anddeveloping economies JEL codes:D63,E62, O23, O47 1INTRODUCTION Given rising income inequality around the world, inclusive growth that benefits the broaderpopulation has become a top priority for academics and policymakers. In particular, the incomegap between the rich and the poor within economies sh