新与二手公务机交易预测：公务机市场展望 2025–2029

BUSINESS JETTRANSACTIONFORECAST 03\PREFACE04\EXECUTIVE SUMMARY05\KEY THEMES DRIVING THE FORECAST06\TOTAL MARKET OVERVIEW07\NEW MARKET OVERVIEW08\NEW MARKET BY SIZE09\PRE-OWNED MARKET OVERVIEW1O\PRE-OWNED MARKET BY SIZE11\GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF ALL NEW AND PRE-OWNED AIRCRAFT TRANSACTIONS12\METHODOLOGY, ASSUMPTIONS, AND RISKS13\CONCLUSION14\SOURCES Forecast & Market Analysis:Bill Ostrovebostrove@globaljetcapital.com Contacts Aircraft Financing \ Americas:Michael Christiemchristie@globaljetcapital.com Aircraft Financing \ EMEA, Asia, Asia Pacific:Robert Gatesrgates@globaljetcapital.com Aircraft Sales:Tom Mekistmekis@globaljetcapital.com WHILE NOTHING IS EVER PERFECT,THE BUSINESS AVIATION INDUSTRYIS IN A PRETTY GOOD PLACE. Welcome to Global Jet Capital’s 5th annual new and pre-owned transaction forecast. Over the past 5 years our econometric forecast model has been impacted by a wide range of economic data (some good, some bad) and a few Black Swanevents (COVID-19 and wars in Ukraine and Israel). Through this period, however, the resilient value proposition that has been the backbone of businessaviation since its inception has remained compelling: immediate access to travel, security, safety, and productivity. Back in 2023, we predicted that regardless of some “puts and takes,” the industry had reached a new, higher, and solid plateau. Based on current data setsand projections, this still appears to be the case. Flight hours, transaction activity, inventory levels, OEM backlogs, book-to-bill ratios, and production rates alltell a story of a mature, resilient, and healthy industry. Even the tariff environment that dominated the industry news cycle through the first half of this year hashad a very limited impact. You may have noticed that while we typically publish our forecast in the spring, this year we have waited for the fall, allowing us to incorporate actual data fromthe first half of the year for greater context. Also, what better time to publish than on the eve of our industry’s premier event: NBAA-BACE? We hope to see you in Las Vegas. THE GLOBAL JETCAPITAL BUSINESS JETMARKET OUTLOOKSUMMARIZES THEOUTPUTS OF OURPROPRIETARYTRANSACTION FORECASTMODEL COVERINGTHE PERIOD OF 2025THROUGH 2029.\ It reflects our projection of future activity in the business jet transaction market in both the new and pre-owned segmentsacross different geographies. The business jet transaction market grew in 2024 as OEMs made progress resolving supply chain and labor constraints(although more work needs to be done), and the pre-owned market recovered after a period of rebalancing. Withexpectations for steady economic growth, gradual improvement to supply chains, and a normalizing pre-owned market,we project business jet transactions will grow over the next five years. •Total new and pre-owned business jet transaction unit volume is forecast to increase 8.3 percent in 2025. Transactiondollar volume should increase at a rate of 6 percent in 2025. •After years of strong order intake and deliveries limited by supply chain and labor constraints, backlogs at majorbusiness jet OEMs are significantly higher than they were five years ago. As a result, new deliveries should increase 4.4percent in 2025 and grow at an average annual rate of 2.7 percent over the next five years. Deliveries are poised togrow steadily throughout the forecast period. •Pre-owned transactions are expected to continue their 2024 growth in 2025. Annual unit volume should increase 9.5percent and dollar volume should increase 6.2 percent. Average annual growth is expected to continue over the nextfive years at a rate of 4.2 percent. Dollar volume should grow at an average annual rate of 3.4 percent during that time. •We project North America will maintain its position as the largest market for both new and pre-owned business jets overthe forecast period, making up 73.8 percent of the total market. Europe will continue to be an important market, whilestrong pre-owned transaction levels in Latin America are expected to make it the second-largest regional market duringthe forecast period. Business jet demand, measured in dollar volume, is forecast to grow at an annualized rate of 3.9 percent over the next five years. Economic expansion and rising demand for businessaviation flights should lead to increased transaction activity through 2029. Business jets serve primarily as business tools, and customer demand closely tracks overall economic growth and wealth creation. In recent years, the global economy has faceduncertainty stemming from inflation and geopolitical instability. In 2025, negotiations over tariffs and trade have added further pressure. Even so, global growth has proven resilient.Oxford Economics forecasts global GDP will expand by 2.6 percent year-over-year in 2025, with growth expected to continue at that pace over the next five years. This momentumshould be a key contributor to business jet demand between 2025 and 2029. During the first