10月FOMC调查结果

Economics Fed Notes October FOMC survey results Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D.Chief US Economist+1-212-250-6161 This note summarizes responses toour pre-FOMC investor survey. The objectiveof the survey is tounderstand expectations for the meeting and how financial Matthew RaskinStrategist Responses to this survey were submitted between Tuesday10/21andFriday Amy YangEconomist Background on respondents(Figures1-3) •There were52respondents (though not all answered every question). •Most respondents are based in the US (56%) or Europe (33%). •The overwhelming majority have a fixed-income (53%) or multi-asset •63% are risk-takers, either as a portfolio manager or trader. Expectations for policyatthisweek’s meeting(Figures 4-9) •Respondents attach an average probability of 89% to a 25bp rate cut atthis week’s meeting.This average isbroadlysimilar across respondentsin different roles (i.e., PM, trader, research, etc.), though risk-takers and •A significant majority(71%) expect Chair Powell in his press conferenceto sound neutral relative to market expectations; the remainder skew •Overall, respondentsattach a 45% probability toan end to QT being anOctober announcement(33%).Risk-takers put somewhat more •If QT is announced in October,most respondents expect it to lead to asmall decline in the 10-year yield (0 to-2bps most common response). Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research Anticipated market reactionthisweek(Figures10-11) •In the baseline expected scenario of a 25bp rate cut, the medianexpectation is that 2y and 10y UST yields wouldbe unchangedand the •In the alternative 50bp cut scenario, the median expectation is that 2ywoulddrop 10bp but 10y UST yield would be unchanged, and the oRisk-takers holdasimilarviewon2y yieldsbut expect the10ytorise by2bps in this scenario;they also expect a strongerresponsein equities (S&P to rally by 1.5%on the day). Source:Deutsche Bank Research Respondents’own economic and financial expectations(Figures 12-16) •For year-end, the median expectation is that the fed funds rate will be3.5-3.75%, reflecting25bpreductions in OctoberandDecember. The 2yand 10y UST yields are expected to be 3.4%and 4.0%, respectively, and oRelative to the September survey,thereis moreconcentrationinexpectations forrate cuts in October and December,the2y yieldis unchanged, 10yyields area few bps lower andtheyear-end •The median expectation is that, over the next 12 months, headline CPIinflation will be 3%,the unemployment rate will rise modestly to 4.5%and oInflationis expected to be slightly higher(0.1ppt)andunemployment unchanged over the next year if the Fed cuts oRespondents see slightly higher probability of a recession if theFedcuts rates by 50bps this meeting,with respondents Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research 27 October 2025Fed Notes Appendix 1 Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). Inaddition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk andconflict disclosures can also be found athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively'Deutsche Bank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sourcesbelieved to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in thisreport, or is included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for itsown account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others withinDeutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with thosetaken in this research report. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis,equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. Theydo not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deu