美联储9月FOMC调查结果-117775697

Economics Fed Notes September FOMC survey results Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D.Chief US Economist+1-212-250-6161 This note summarizes responses to the first edition of anew investor surveythatwe plan to conduct ahead of each FOMC meeting. The objective of the survey istounderstand expectations for the meeting and how financial markets and marketexpectations are likely to respond to various potential outcomes. Matthew RaskinStrategist+1-212-250-1741 Responses to this survey were submitted between Tuesday9/9 and Thursday9/11. Amy YangEconomist+1-212-250-9959 Background on respondents(Figures1-3) •There were 115 respondents (though not all answered every question).•Most respondents are based in the US (40%) or Europe (40%).•The overwhelming majority have a fixed-income (44%) or multi-asset(38%) focus; the rest are in equities or FX.•57% are risk-takers, either as a portfolio manager or trader. 15 September 2025Fed Notes Expectations for policyatthisweek’s meeting(Figures 4-8) •Respondents attach an average probability of 80% to a 25bp rate cut atthis week’s meeting. This average is similar across respondents indifferent roles (i.e., PM, trader, research, etc.). •Just under half (45%) expect Chair Powell in his press conference tosound neutral relative to market expectations; the remainder skewtowards Powell sounding hawkish. •Expectations for the median 2025 dot in the SEP are close to evenly split,with 51% expecting it to show 50bpsof cuts and 43% expecting 75bps. 15 September 2025Fed Notes 15 September 2025Fed Notes 15 September 2025Fed Notes Anticipated market reactionthisweek(Figures 9-10) •In the baseline expected scenario of a 25bp rate cut, the medianexpectation is that 2y and 10y USTyields would both increase 1bp andthe S&P 500 would rise 0.4% on Wednesday. oRisk-takers anticipate both 2y and 10y yields would rise byslightly more (3bps) and the S&P by slightly less (0.3%). •In the alternative 50bp cut scenario, the median expectation is that 2yand 10y UST yields would fall10bpsand5bps, respectively, and theS&P500 would increase 1%. oRisk-takers and other respondents hold similar viewson USTsbut expect a somewhat larger rise in the S&P (1.3%). Respondents’own economic and financial expectations(Figures 11-15) •For year-end, the median expectation is that the fed funds rate will be3.7%, reflecting between two and three 25bp cuts. The 2y and 10y USTyields are expected to be 3.4%and 4.15%, respectively, and the S&P 500is expected to be 6,650. oYear-end rates are expected to be somewhatlower (~5-15bps)and equities slightly higher (~1ppt) under the scenario where theFOMC cuts 50bpsrather than 25bpsthis week. •The median expectation isthat, over the next 12 months, headline CPIinflation will be 3% and the probability of a US recession is around 25%. oAcrossall respondents,the median inflation and recessionexpectations are not materially different under the 25 vs. 50bpcut scenarios for this meeting. oHowever,equity clients differ on how their assessment ofrecession probabilitieswould change with a 50bp cut:otherrespondentswould see lowerrecession risksconditional onthebiggercutwhileequitymarket participantswouldsee higherrisk.In open-ended responses,some equity clients notednegative signalling effects from a surprise 50bp cut.(However,as noted above, they represent a relatively small sub-sample.) 15 September 2025Fed Notes Source:Deutsche Bank Research Source:Deutsche Bank Research 15 September 2025Fed Notes Appendix 1 AnalystCertification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). Inaddition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specificrecommendation or view in thisreport. Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D., Matthew Raskin, Amy Yang. Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subjectcompanies, and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research,please visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk andconflict disclosures can also be found athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors arestrongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively'Deutsche Bank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sourcesbelieved to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks tothird-party websites in this report are provided for reader convenience o