英美资源集团、泰克资源与第三方X

Global | Metals & Mining Anglo, Teck, and Party X Our Call:Our base case is that Anglo Teckcloses in its current proposed form. However,it is possible that interlopers emerge forAngloand/or Teck.In either case,wewould expect shares of Anglo and Teck tooutperform in the short term as the plannedmerger in its current form should lead toa higher combined equity valuation, and aninterloper will only be successful if it comesin with a superior offer. The Teck circular for the Anglo Teck merger discloses that Teck had been inon-and-off merger discussions with a “Party X” from May 2023 to May 2025.By process of elimination, we believe Party X may have been Freeport or RioTinto. It is possible that Anglo Teck interlopers emerge, although any competingoffers would likely need to be made before Thanksgiving. The History:Mining M&A often comes in waves. The most recent wave includes Glencore’s attemptto acquire all of Teck in 2023 before acquiring Teck’s coal business in July 2024, BHP’s attemptto acquire Anglo in 2024, and the planned Anglo Teck merger, which was announced on Sept9th. As per the Teck circular, Teck and a ‘Party X’ were also engaged in discussions regarding apotential no-premium all-share merger. These discussions began in May 2023 - one month afterTeck had rejected Glencore's unsolicited offer - and coincided with Teck’s discussions with Anglo.The negotiations with Party X obviously did not lead to a deal as Anglo and Teck have agreed tomerge. The Anglo and Teck shareholder votes are scheduled for Dec 9th. Our base case is thatAnglo Teck closes, but other major miners are likely considering how they can get involved as Angloand Teck are two of the most coveted major targets in the sector. We believe a merger of Angloand Teck would take these companies out of play due to antitrust in copper. Any new third-partyoffer for either company would most likely need to be made at least two weeks before the Angloand Teck shareholder votes so that proxy advisory firms have time to review the new offer. **Ourrecent note on the competitivepositioning of potential interlopers is HERE. **We are hosting a call today to discuss theAnglo Teck deal with a focus on interloperrisk. Register HERE if you would like to jointhe call. Identifying Party X:Potential bidders for Teck could include BHP, Rio, Glencore, Vale, Freeport, and,of course, Anglo. So, who is Party X? BHP attempted to acquire Anglo in 2024, so it was almostcertainly not BHP. Glencore's unsolicited offer for Teck in April 2023 was rejected, and Glencorethen acquired Teck's coal business in July 2024. It would not make sense for the two companies tobe in discussions after the coal deal, so we can rule out Glencore as Party X. Vale Base Metals wasreportedly interested in Teck, but an all-share deal between VBM and Teck is not possible as VBM isnot listed. It would not make sense for Vale itself to attempt an all-share merger with Teck as Vale'sown valuation was far too low (<4x EV/EBITDA). Vale's CEO said recently that it would not make anoffer for Teck now. Freeport could be Party X, and a Freeport Teck merger would be strategicallycompelling, in our view. One argument against this is that Freeport has been risk averse, but we hadalways thought a Freeport bid for Teck was possible. Following the mud rush incident at Grasberg,however, M&A is not a priority for Freeport now. Finally, we believe it would make strategic sensefor Rio to be Party X based on comments from former CEO, Jakob Stausholm, about Rio effectivelybeing a Canadian company and being able to do M&A in Canada despite Canada’s new restrictionson M&A for foreign companies. Using equity to acquire Teck would be complicated due to Rio'sDLC structure, but doing so could dilute Chinalco’s ownership interest and therefore enable Rio touse FCF to repurchase its shares. A Rio-Teck merger would be strategically compelling, in our view.A Rio-Anglo merger could be even more compelling. One argument against Rio being Party X is thatMr. Stausholm did shoot down speculation that Rio would acquire Teck. He also denied at one pointRio and Teck being in active discussions. All things considered, we believe Party X was most likelyFreeport or Rio, with Freeport arguably more likely than Rio. Christopher LaFemina, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7304 | clafemina@jefferies.com Patricia Hove, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 707-6362 | phove@jefferies.com **Note that none of these companies has commented on Party X. Albert Realini, CPA * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8487 | arealini@jefferies.com Giovanni Holmes ^ | Equity Associate+44 20 7548 4172 | gholmes@jefferies.com Stock Price (Pence)2800pRatingBuyPrice Target3300pNPV per share excluding value of unapproved growth2107pSum-of-the-Parts NPV/share2775pAnalystChris LaFemina, CFAShares1,192Market capitalization (GBP millions)£33,376Market capitalization ($ millions)$43,884 Production (fiscal year) Iron Ore (Consolidated, mt)Iron Ore (Attributable, mt)Copper