2025年世界能源展望

INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines thefull spectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement andmuch more. Throughits work, the IEAadvocates policiesthat will enhance thereliability, affordabilityand sustainability ofenergy in its32Member countries,13Associationcountries andbeyond. IEA Associationcountries: IEAMembercountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine Please note that thispublication is subject tospecific restrictions that limitits use and distribution. Theterms and conditions areavailable online atwww.iea.org/terms This publication and anymap included herein arewithout prejudice to thestatus of or sovereignty overany territory, to thedelimitation of internationalfrontiers and boundaries andto the name of any territory,city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org This latest edition of the International Energy Agency (IEA) flagship publication, theWorldEnergy Outlook (WEO), comes at a time when energy is increasingly at the centre of politicaland geopolitical tensions. Of course, the links between energy and politics have always beenclose, but when we look at the energy world in recent decades, there is no other time whenenergy security tensions have applied to so many fuels and technologies at once. Governments are contending with a formidable array of potential threats, vulnerabilities,dependencies and uncertainties spanning areas such as oil, natural gas, electricity, energyinfrastructure, critical minerals, technology supply chains, data centres and AI, and more. Energy security today is truly a matter of economic and national security – and safeguardingit requires the same spirit of cooperation and focus that governments showed when the IEAwas created after the 1973 oil shock. Take, for example, critical minerals, which are a major theme of thisWEObut also reflect thebroader role of the IEA on issues of energy security, where we move quickly to identify andaddress emerging vulnerabilities. The IEA was the first to highlight the risks of high concentration of critical mineral supplies,especially in refining and processing. Today, a single country is the leading refiner for 19 outof 20 energy-related strategic minerals. As we pointed out in our landmark report on thesubject in 2021, reliance on a small number of suppliers raises the risks of supply disruptionsor economic coercion. Over the past few years, the IEA has invested heavily in building up our global data andanalytical capabilities in critical minerals, mirroring the world-leading capacities that we haveacross other parts of the energy sector, and setting up a Critical Minerals SecurityProgramme. The topic was also a major focus at our Summit on the Future of Energy Security,held in London partnership with the UK government in April 2025. Today, the risks that we identified in 2021 are no longer a theoretical concern; they havebecome a hard reality. The implications spread across different energy technologies but alsoapply to other strategic sectors such as energy, automotive, AI and defence. They affectmillions of jobs. As we highlight again in thisOutlook, urgent action is needed both in thenear term to strengthen preparedness against potential disruptions, and over the longerterm to diversify supply chains and reduce structural risks. All of this shows how the IEA’sanalysis transfers across into real-world impact. There are many other aspects of thisOutlookthat also have real operational implications forenergy policymakers. The focus on electricity security; the countries like India, Indonesia andBrazil that are increasingly shaping energy market trends; the sea change in gas markets thatis on the horizon with the new wave of liquefied natural gas (LNG), led by the United States. We also highlight, once again, two critical areas where the world is clearly falling short:universal energy access and climate change. Both of these have been longstanding focusareas for the IEA and theWEOfor decades. We present a new pathway in this year’sWEO ForewordIEA. CC BY 4.0. for enabling everyone around the world to benefit from the advantages of electricityconnections and modern cooking stoves – advantages that many of us take for granted. Thisbuilds on the momentum created by the landmark Summit on Clean Cooking Africa that theIEA and our partners organised in Paris in May 2024. And we highlight once again that, far from limiting global warming to 1.5 °C or well below2 °C, we are cu