深圳写字楼市场报告2025年第三季度

Overview and Outlook Pressure persists and price discovery continues amid intensifying structural competition In Q3 2025, Shenzhen’s Grade-Aoffice market remained in a correctionphase. Rents continued todecline,new supply was released in clusters,and absorption momentum softened.The citywide average effective rentfell to RMB 148.4/sqm/month, down2.2% QoQ. Although the rate ofdecline narrowed slightly from theprevious quarter, it still reflects aclear downtrend, reflecting ongoingprice concessions from landlords tosupport leasing. New supply surgedapproximately 219,000 sqm—thehighest quarterly addition year-to-date—while net absorption was only68,000 sqm. The widened supply–demand gap pushed the citywidevacancy rate up to 26.1%, an increase of0.9 percentage points QoQ. declines within 2%. Overall, pricinggames intensified and the downwardpressure on rents persisted. at recouping cash and optimizingthe balance sheet. Overall liquiditystayed low, with owner-occupiers andstrategic/industrial capital as the mainbuyers, while traditional financial andinstitutional investors largely stayed onthe sidelines. Demand continued to contract.The TMT dominated with a 52.0%share, driven mainly by internetplatforms and software developers.Professional services accountedfor 21.3%, supported by digitalmarketing and go-global advisory.Healthcare ranked third, with onlinemedical services particularly active.Corporate leasing strategies remainedconservative: relocations covered 77.0%of deals, while upgrade relocationsfell to 31.3%, indicating a preferencefor flight-to-quality upgrades ormodest cost reductions. Renewalsrepresented 10.9%, whereas new leasesand expansions were just 6.6% and4.0%, respectively—signaling subduedmarket activity. Looking ahead to Q4 2025, themarket is expected to continuefacing heavy supply, soft absorption,and downward rental pressure.Approximately 150,000 sqm of newsupply is anticipated, and with risingmacro uncertainty and cautioustenant decision-making, landlords arelikely to combine pricing flexibilitywith lease incentives. The year-endleasing season may deliver a temporaryimprovement, with net absorptionpotentially rebounding above 100,000sqm. Nevertheless, the broaderdowntrend will be hard to reverse,and citywide rents are expected toedge lower at a rate comparable toQ3. Stronger precincts (e.g., NanshanHi-Tech Park, Qianhai) shouldoutperform due to solid industry basesand tenant stickiness, while Futian andBao’an may experience sharper pricecompetition. Across submarkets, rental cutsremained prevalent. Bao’an ledthe declines (-5.8% QoQ) amidrent reductions by cross-bordere-commerce tenants and proactiverepricing by landlords. Chegongmiaoand Futian fell 3.9% and 3.5%,respectively, amid intensifiedlocal competition. Nanshan wascomparatively resilient, with coreprecincts such as Hi-Tech Park,Qianhai, and Shekou generally keeping Investment activityremainedmuted, with only onenotable en-bloc transaction: ChinaMerchants Shekou transferred CMProperty Operation Building to ChinaMerchants Energy Shipping for RMB716 million, implying a unit price ofRMB 21,607/sqm. The deal reflectsintragroup asset reallocation aimed Rental Level Rents continue to decline and pricing competition intensifies In Q3 2025, citywide averageeffective rent fell further to RMB148.4/sq m/month (-2.2% QoQ), a0.7-ppt narrowing from the priorquarter’s decline. While the downtrendpersisted, the pace of adjustmentmoderated as landlords adopted moretargeted leasing strategies to stabilizeoccupancies in a more competitivelandscape. By submarket, Bao’an posted thesteepest QoQ drop at 5.8%, driven byproactive repricing and enhancedincentives at benchmark assets.Lingering US-China uncertainties alsoweighed on cross-border e-commerceexpansion, prompting elevated rentreductions and surrenders activity,which pulleddown achieved pricing.Chegongmiao followed (-3.9% QoQ)as older projects offered deeperconcessions. Futian (-3.5% QoQ) waspressured by Nanshan’s “magneteffect” and flexible pricing at newdeliveries. In contrast, Nanshanremained relatively stable—rentsin Tech Park, Qianhai and Houhaimostly slipped within 2%—reflectingstrong tenant stickiness among corecorporates. of “price adjustments + longer leaseterms + rent-free periods” to attractoccupiers. Citywiderents are likely toedge down further, with QoQ declinessimilar to those seen in Q3. Looking ahead to Q4, concentratednew supply coupled with subdueddemand is expected to keep rentalpricing under pressure. Landlords arelikely to continue deploying a toolkit Supply and Demand New supply surged while softer take-up widened the supply–demand imbalance This quarter saw a spike in newGrade-A supply as Dajia FinancialCentre, Skyworth Overseas HQ Towerand TruValue Asset HeadquarterBuilding were delivered, totalingabout 219,000 sqm—the year’s peak.In contrast, leasing demand slowednotably, with net absorption retreatingto 68,000 sqm, re-exposing thestructural oversupply. By sec