弹性顶线增长，应对暂时的法律逆风

Newborn Town | 09911.HK COMPANY UPDATE Resilienttop-line growth,navigating temporary legalheadwinds H F NGO, Brian, CFA SENIOR ANALYSTbrianngo@westbullsec.com.hk+8523896 29652701–2703,27/F, Infinitus Plaza, 199 Des Voeux RdCentral, Sheung Wan, HK BUY For the nine months ended 30 Sep 2025,Newborn Town (09911.HK) isexpected to achievesocial networking segment revenueofRMB 4,380mn-RMB 4,440mn,marking robustYoYgrowth of34.5%-36.4%.Average MAU for the social networking business reachedapproximately 34.08mn in Q3 2025, representing a 0.7% sequential improvement. Revenuefrom the innovative business segment isanticipated at RMB 530mn–RMB 550mn,constituting69.9%-76.3%YoY growth. Newborn Town(09911.HK) Stock Rating(Previous Rating)BUY(BUY)Target Price(Previous TP)HK$13.20(HK$ 13.20)CurrentPriceHK$ 10.1352-WeekRangeHK$ 3.26–13.63Market cap. (HKD, bn)HK$ 14.3 Sustainedmonetizationmomentumin social networking business:Growth in the socialnetworking segment remained steady, with flagship platforms Sugo and TopTop sustainingover USD 10mnin monthly recharge and underpinning aggregate revenue growth. EnhancedAI-driven operational tools, notably Boomiix, are yielding improvements in key user metricssuch as online duration, payment conversion, and ARPU, supporting ongoing marketpenetration and engagement. Diversificationandmarginupsidein theinnovativebusiness:The innovative business postedan exceptional Q3 2025, reporting quarterly revenue of RMB 193.1mnif we took the mediumnumber of the guidanceinto consideration, a record level. This outperformance waspropelled by successful traffic monetization and further expansion inthe e-commercebusiness.Niche games,such as the high-performing Alice’s Dream,continuedto lift overallprofit margin,and the Group’s ability to replicate proven monetization models and launchnew games highlights the medium-term upside for this segment. Strategicoutlookremainsintact, despiteatemporary legal disruption:Despite solid financialand operational performance, the stock has recently experienced a sharp correction due tolegal disputes,which have triggeredgovernance and dilution concerns.We believe that thesechallenges aretransitory, with operational fundamentals and revenue targets unaffected.TheGroup reiterates its FY2025 guidance for total revenue ofRMB 6.8bn–RMB 7.0bn,underpinned by robust growth in all core businesses. Maintaining the "BUY" rating and HKD13.20 target price reflects confidence in the resilience ofthe Group’s business model andrecovery prospects as legal risks are resolved. Peers comparison Risk Factors ◼The strong performance of Sugoand TopTop cannotbe sustained◼Asudden change in the macroenvironment in MENA due to the escalating international conflicts◼The marketing expenses cannot be well-controlled◼Unable toreplicate the performance of Alice’s Dreaminother niche games Financial Statement West Bull Securities is a dedicated small/mid cap stock brokerage house. Find our research on: Alphasense,FactSet, Capital IQ,Refinitiv, Wind, Choice, Hibor,iFinDand發現報告. Ratings of West Bull Securities: STRONGBUY:absoluteupside of >50% over the next 12 monthsBUY:absoluteupside of >10% over the next12monthsHOLD: absolute return of-10% to+10% over the next 12 monthsSELL: absolute downside of >10% over the next 12 monthsSTRONGSELL: absolute downside of >50% over the next 12 months Investors should assume that West Bull Securities is seeking or will seek investment banking or otherrelated businesses with thecompanies in this report. Analyst certification:The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views of the subject securities andthat the analyst has not received and will not receive direct orindirect compensation in exchange for expressing specificrecommendations or views in this report. Disclaimer: This research report is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The securities referredtoin this report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. The information contained in this report has been compiledbythe Research Department of West Bull Securities Limited (‘West Bull Securities’) from sources that it believes to be reliablebut norepresentation, warranty or guarantee is made or given by West Bull Securities Securities or any other person as to its accuracy orcompleteness. All opinions and estimates expressed in this report are (unless otherwise indicated) entirely those ofWest BullSecurities as of the date of this report only and are subject to change without notice. Neither West Bull Securities nor anyotherperson,accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contentsor otherwisearising in connection therewith. Each recipient of this report shall be solely responsible for making its own independent investigationof the business, financial condition and prospects of the companies referred to in this report. West BullSecurities and t