推导数字贸易的实验估计

Deriving experimental estimatesof digital trade This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinionsexpressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Membercountries of the OECD. This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalemand Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. Attribution4.0International(CCBY4.0) ThisworkismadeavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution4.0Internationallicence.Byusingthiswork,youaccepttobeboundbythetermsofthislicence:https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Attribution–youmustcitethework. Translations–you must cite the original work, identify changes tothe original and add the following text:In the event of anydiscrepancy between the original work and the translation, only the text of original workshould be considered valid. Adaptations–youmustcitetheoriginalworkandaddthefollowingtext:ThisisanadaptationofanoriginalworkbytheOECD.Theopinionsexpressedandargumentsemployedinthisadaptationshouldnotbereportedasrepresentingtheofficialviewsofthe OECD or of its Member countries. Third-partymaterial–thelicencedoesnotapplytothird-partymaterialinthework.Ifusingsuchmaterial,youareresponsiblefor obtaining permission from the third party and for any claims of infringement. You must not use the OECD logo, visual identity or cover imagewithout express permission or suggestthe OECD endorsesyour use of the work. AnydisputearisingunderthislicenceshallbesettledbyarbitrationinaccordancewiththePermanentCourtofArbitration(PCA)Arbitration Rules 2012. The seat of arbitration shall be Paris (France). The number ofarbitrators shall be one. Acknowledgements This paper was prepared by Giorgia Bergamo, Nicolas Benoit and Molly Lesher (OECD Directorate forScience, Technology and Innovation);Karin Gourdon and Javier López González (OECD Directorate forTradeand Agriculture);and Eugene Chang,Israel Gutierrez and Annabelle Mourougane(OECDDirectorate for Statistics and Data). The authors are grateful toCharles Cadestin, Mattia Cai, Agnès Cimper, Bram Edens, SébastienMiroudot,Catherine La Rosa-Elkaim, Gueram SargsyanandColin Webb(allOECD)fortheirvaluable insights andexchanges, which helped shape the approach presented in this paper. The work benefitted fromdiscussionsand valuable input from Delegates of the OECD Working Party on Digital EconomyMeasurement and Analysis (WPDEMA), the Working Party of the Trade Committee (WPTC), and theWorking Party on International Trade in Goods and Services Statistics (WPTGS), as well as fromparticipantsin a joint webinarbringing together Delegates from all three working parties.The Secretariatwishes to express its appreciation for their active engagement and valuable contributions, which have beeninstrumental to the fruitful outcome of this work. The authors would also like to thank Marion Barberis and Virginie Elgrably for their invaluable assistancein organising the meetings and supporting the publication process. Table of contents Deriving experimental estimates of digital trade1 Acknowledgements3 Executive summary6 1Introduction8 2 What is digital trade?10Digital trade measurement efforts to date11A stepwise approach to estimating digital trade14 3 Measuring digitally ordered trade from an international e-commerce perspective16 Overview of the data17Addressing missing data through imputation and modelling18Estimates of digitally ordered trade using an international e-commerce approach23Estimates of digital trade using an international e-commerce approach30 4 Measuring digitally ordered trade from an international trade perspective33 Methodology33Overview of the data34Addressing missing data through imputation and modelling43Experimental estimates of digitally ordered trade and digital trade using the international tradeapproach44 Comparing estimates of digitally ordered trade50Validation exercise for Spain59Comparison summary61References62 Annex A. Bottom-up method of the international trade approach64 Annex C. Comparison of observed and imputed e-commerce shares in turnover66Notes71 Tables Table2.1. Existing experimental estimates of digital trade14Table3.1. Availability of data on international e-commerce sales18Table3.2. Imputation and modelling methods for the main indicators18Table3.3. Retail and logistics sectors show rising shares in digitally ordered trade30Table4.1. Description of data sources35Table4.2. Missing observations for e-commerce shares (𝜸)36Table4.3. Summary statistics of e-commerce share in turnove