清洁炼钢：向低碳未来过渡

Jhih-Shyang Shih, Ethan Ziegler, Alan Krupnick, Marc Hafstead, and Aaron Bergman About the Authors Jhih-Shyang Shihis a fellow at Resources for the Future (RFF). He has extensiveexperience in energy and environmental modeling. His research focuses on integratedsystem analysis of environmental and resource policy and decisionmaking. His workhas been published in leading journals, including PNAS, Environmental Science & Ethan Ziegleris a research analyst at RFF, where he works on E4ST. He previouslystudied economics and environmental science at American University, where heconducted optimization modeling research on the effects of food waste. Alan Krupnickis an RFF senior fellow and director of the Industry and Fuels Program.Krupnick is an expert on the oil and gas sector, reducing greenhouse gas emissionsfrom this and the industrial sectors, and cost-benefit analysis. In particular, Krupnick’srecent research focuses on green public procurement, decarbonized hydrogen andtax credits, and developing markets for green natural gas. His portfolio also includesguiding the value of information agenda covered by our VALUABLES initiative with Marc Hafsteadis an RFF fellow and director of the Carbon Pricing Initiativeand the Climate Finance and Financial Risk Initiative. His research has primarilyfocused on the evaluation and design of federal and state-level climate and energypolicies using sophisticated multi-sector models of the US economy. With StanfordProfessor and RFF University Fellow Lawrence H. Goulder, he wroteConfronting theClimate Challenge: US Policy Options(Columbia University Press) to evaluate theenvironmental and economic impacts of federal carbon taxes, cap-and-trade programs, Aaron Bergmanis a fellow at RFF. Prior to joining RFF, he was the Lead forMacroeconomics and Emissions at the Energy Information Administration (EIA),managing EIA’s modeling in those areas. Before working at EIA, Bergman spent almosta decade in the policy office at the Department of Energy, working on a broad arrayof climate and environmental policies. Bergman has worked in the White House at theOffice of Science and Technology Policy, managing the Quadrennial Energy Review Acknowledgements We gratefully acknowledge discussions with Dallas Burtraw, Milan Elkerbout, AlArmendariz, Jan Mares, and Andrew Gossett. About RFF Resources for the Future (RFF) is an independent, nonprofit research institution inWashington, DC. Its mission is to improve environmental, energy, and natural resourcedecisions through impartial economic research and policy engagement. RFF is Working papers are research materials circulated by their authors for purposes ofinformation and discussion. They have not necessarily undergone formal peer review.The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and may differ from those Sharing Our Work Our work is available for sharing and adaptation under an Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) license. Youcan copy and redistribute our material in any medium or format; you must giveappropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made,and you may not apply additional restrictions. You may do so in any reasonablemanner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.You may not use the material for commercial purposes. If you remix, transform, or Abstract The steel industry, accounting for approximately 7–9 percent of global CO2 is a critical sector for industrial decarbonization. Transitioning from coal-basedblast furnaces to low-carbon pathways such as hydrogen-based direct reduced iron(DRI) and electrified furnaces offers significant mitigation potential while reducingexposure to carbon pricing and trade measures. This study develops a low-carbonsteel production (LCSP) optimization model to support industry practitioners and policymakers in strategic planning for sustainable decarbonization. The modelincorporates natural gas- and hydrogen-based DRI ironmaking, scrap-DRI blendingin electric arc furnaces, and life cycle CO2emissions and impurity considerations to ensure product quality requirements are met at minimum cost. The current frameworkis a deterministic, single-period linear programming model with decision variablesincluding DRI feedstock blending ratios and scrap steel-(new) DRI steelmaking Contents 1. Introduction1 2. Literature Review2.1. Model Analyses2.2. Decarbonization of Steelmaking 3. The Low-Carbon Steel Production (LCSP) Model3.1. System Configuration3.2. The LCSP Model Description 4. Model Input Data for Default Scenario 5. Scenario Descriptions and Results 8 5.1. Default Scenario Results (S0)5.2. Scenario S1: S0 + Incentives to use High Quality Scrap5.3. Scenario S2: S1 + Minimizing (CCS Costs) + Cheaper H2Price ($2.5/kg H2) 6. Conclusions 12 References Appendix A. The Low-Carbon Steel Production (LCSP) Model A.1. Formulation20A.1.1. Hydrogen feedstock20A.1.2. H2-b