国际能源署-乌克兰的能源安全-冬季前评估

A pre-winter assessment INTERNATIONAL ENERGY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy, IEAMember IEAAssociation AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFrance ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndia This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of The EuropeanCommission also Ukraine’s energy sector continues to be a majortarget of Russian missile and drone attacks As Ukraine enters its fourth winter of the war, energy infrastructure continues to be targetedby Russian attacks. Ukraine’s natural gas and power infrastructure remain vulnerable, withan increasing number of missiles and drones striking critical plants and pipelines. At the Energy security is central to Ukraine’s overall security. Ensuring that Ukrainian citizensretain access to heat and power is of the utmost importance, especially during the coldwinter months. While Ukraine has made strong strides in rebuilding and strengthening theresilience of its energy system this past spring and summer, the situation remains fragile, This analysis builds on the IEA’s September 2024 report,Ukraine’s Energy Security andthe Coming Winter. It provides an update on the latest developments through October 2025and proposes key actions that Ukraine and its partners can take to address urgent energy Despite significant progress in 2025 on restoringpower systems, risks remain elevated Since the end of the last heating season, Ukraine has extensively worked to restoredamaged power system infrastructure while adding further distributed generation and Before 2022, Ukraine’s available dispatchable power generation capacity was roughly 38gigawatts (GW). Losses in the first year of war due to occupation, destruction and/ordamage amounted to 19 GW, and after additional concentrated attacks in spring 2024, The country's electricity mix remains highly dependent on the three remaining operationalnuclear power plants located in western and central Ukraine. Together, they account for Ukraine’s electricity security continues to benefit from the sector’s interconnection with theEuropean grid following its synchronisation in March 2022. This integration has proven vital,enabling imports during peak demand periods while allowing exports that help stabiliseUkraine’s grid and generate revenues when domestic generation is sufficient. In 2024,Ukraine imported a record 4 436 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of electricity, reflecting the extensivedamage to its domestic generation capacity.In the first nine months of 2025, import levels Over the past year, progress has been made in expanding cross-border capacity forelectricity trade. Since December 2024, firm import capacity has been set at 2.1 GW duringwinter months and 1.7 GW in the summer, while export capacity increased from 550 MW to650 MW. The available trade capacities are now recalculated weekly by the six regionaltransmission system operators, providing greater flexibility to respond to system conditions Ukraine has also managed to add large-scale energy storage capacity over the past year.DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private sector energy firm, launched the country's firstenergystorage system complexin September 2025, with a capacity of 200 megawatts (MW) anda total storage of 400 megawatt-hours (MWh). Under the project, there are six facilities Going into October 2025, Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy had anticipated that17.6 GW of totalgenerationcapacity would be available ahead of this heating season. While the winter of2023/2024 saw peak demand reach 18 GW, demand fell to16.5 GWduring the 2024/2025heating season, driven mainly by milder temperatures. However, a colder-than-average The situation is also constantly changing as Russian attacks on power infrastructurecontinue, despite the institution of a pause on strikes against energy infrastructure in thespring. According to Ukraine's Ministry of Energy, the country's power sector saw over 3 Attacks have recently ramped up, in line with what has become a seasonal pattern. On 7-8September2025,Russia conducted its largest-ever air attack on Ukraine since thebeginning of its full-scale invasion in February 2022, significantly impactingenergyinfrastructure. During that attack, 19 drones severely damaged the recently rebuiltTrypilskaTherman Power Plant, which had initially been destroyed in spring 2024. Russia continued Gas production also made a strong recovery, butnew attacks have left a substantial supply deficit Natural gas plays an important role in ensuring heat and electricity supply security inUkraine, and gas-fired power plants are an important provider of flexibility for the power In early 2025, the country’s gas sector was heavily targeted, resulting in a40% loss inproduction, temporary shutdowns and the need for higher gas impo