2025年世界经济形势与展望年中更新

World Economic Situation MID-YEAR UPDATE TheWorld Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2025updates theWorld Economic Situation and Prospects 2025released on 9 January 2025. The report is preparedby the Global Economic Monitoring Branch in the World EconomicSituation and Prospects Summary The world economy is at a precariousmoment. Heightened trade tensions, alongwith policy uncertainty, have significantlyweakened the global economic outlook for2025. Higher tariffs—resulting in a significantincrease in the effective tariff rate in theUnited States of America—are likely to strain exports, lower commodity prices, tighterfinancial conditions, and elevated debt burdens. Inflation is easing globally, but short-term risksfrom tariff-driven cost pressures and uncertaintyare adding to policy challenges. Addressing themrequires a broad toolkit that combines monetary The deteriorating economic outlook is furtherundermining progress toward the SustainableDevelopment Goals, many of which are alreadyoff track. Slower growth and persistent Contents South AsiaWestern AsiaLatin America and the Caribbean Summary Global macroeconomic trends1Global overview1Inflation4Global trade and investment5International finance7 Table 1Growth of world output and gross domestic Figures 1Growth of economic output2Trade policy uncertainty and equity marketvolatility3Merchandise trade volume in selectedeconomies4Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fornew export orders, March 20255.Growth of gross fixed capital formation, bycountry grouping and developing region6.International finance indicators7Central bank policy rates in developed anddeveloping economies Inflationary pressures during economic uncertainty12 North America18Europe18Developed Asia and the Pacific19 Economies in transition19 Developing economies20 AfricaEast Asia Global affects both developed and developing regions, Global overview The global economic outlook has deterioratedsignificantly since the January 2025 forecast.Sweeping United States tariff announcementsand counter-announcements, along withheightened policy uncertainty have eroded globalgrowth prospects, already weaker than the pre-pandemic trend due to high debt levels, sluggishproductivity growth and geopolitical tensions. The broad-based downgrade arises from a seriesof increases in United States tariffs that havebeen unprecedented in size, scope and speed;retaliatory measures by China, the European Against this backdrop, the uncertainty in globalgrowth forecasts is unusually high. Under thebaseline scenario, incorporating developmentsand policy announcements as of early May 2025, Source:UN DESA, based on estimates and forecasts produced with the World Economic Forecasting Model.Note:e= estimates;f= forecasts. United States. Many developing countries alsoface challenges from weak commodity priceoutlooks. In China, disruptions in export-orientedmanufacturing, subdued consumption, andproperty sector weakness are expected to slowgrowth to 4.6 per cent in 2025, 0.2 percentage pointsbelow the January forecast. Mexico’s economyis projected to stagnate in 2025, due to weaker account the agreement between the United Statesand China to significantly ease recent tariff hikesfor 90 days, the average effective tariff rate on In 2024, merchandise trade (average of exportsand imports) accounted for 22.2 per cent of globaleconomic output. United States imports made up14 per cent of global imports, followed by China Complex supply chains based on enhancedspecialization and low transaction costs needtime and investments to adjust, a process that canbe delayed by policy uncertainty. Uncertaintiesamplify financial market stress and volatility,while tariffs are expected to drive up business Economic prospects for many small andvulnerable countries have also worsened.Growth in the least developed countries (LDCs)is forecast at 4.1 per cent in 2025, 0.5 percentagepoints below the January forecast. Cambodia,Lesotho and Madagascar are among the countries Under the baseline scenario, United States growthis forecast at 1.6 per cent in 2025, down from2.8 per cent in 2024 and 0.3 percentage pointsbelow the January forecast (table 1). While theexpectation of higher tariffs led to frontloadingof imports, rising policy uncertainty is expected A rapid resolution of trade tensions, accompaniedby significant tariff reductions, could improveglobal economic prospects. However, downsiderisks dominate, with outcomes potentially Among developing economies, East Asia and LatinAmerica are expected to be the most impacted Figure 2 Trade policy uncertainty and equity market volatility 0.6 percentage points in 2026 compared to the Inflation Inflation has continued to decline in mosteconomies, albeit at a slower rate, but heightenedtrade tensions have increased uncertaintyabout its short-term trajectory. Global headlineinflation is projected to decelerate from 4.0 percent in 2024 to 3.6 per cent in 2025, 0.2