2022年中世界经济形势与展望报告

World EconomicsituationProspectsasofmid-2022United NationsNewYork,2022 World Economic Situationand Prospects as of mid-2022SummaryGlobal growth prospects have weakened significantly amid the war in Ukraine, risingenergy, food and commodity prices, soaring inflation and tightening monetary policystances by major central banks. The world economy is projected to grow by 3.1 percent in 2022, marking a downward revision of 0.9 percentage points from our previousforecast released in January 2022. The baseline forecast faces significant downsiderisks from further intensification of the war in Ukraine and potential new waves of thepandemic.Growth forecasts for the United States, European Union and China have beenrevised downward, with the European Union registering the most significant downwardsupply from the Russian Federation is now expected to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2022,down from 3.9 per cent expected in January. The United States economy is expectedto grow by 2.6 per cent, while China is expected to grow by 4.5 per cent in 2022. Thefrom 6.7 per cent in 2021.The broad-based slowdown of the global economy will undermine a full,inclusive and sustainable recovery from the pandemic. This slowdown, and the wardeveloping countries particularly hard, exacerbating food insecurity and increasingpoverty. Monetary tightening by the developed countries will increase borrowingcosts, undermine debt sustainability, and further constrain the fiscal space to supporta full recovery of developing country economies.The war in Ukraine and its effects on energy and commodity pricesmay also undermine climate action. On the one hand, high oil and gas prices couldincentivize more fossil fuel extraction, or greater use of coal. High nickel prices couldadversely affect the production of electric vehicles, while rising food prices mayimpede the production of biofuel. On the other hand, these high prices are also analigning with overall sustainable development objectives and strengthening the fightagainst climate change.The Wornd Economic Sifuetion and Prospects as of mid-2022isprepared by the Urited Naticns Department of Ecenomicaad SecialAfairs Thereportupdatesthe Wovid Economic Situstion 8wd Prospects 2022 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.21.ILC.1),. released in January 2022 ContentsSummary.Global mocroeconomic trends.Global overviewInflation strikes back4From transitory to more persistent inflationary pressures.Differentiated implications for developed and developing countriesWorsening financial prospects for developing countries.Mounting macroeconomic policy challenges, amid failing multilateralism.8Impact of the war in Ukroine on global cimote action10War and climate action: direct pathways10War and climate action: indirect pathways11Global energy markets and supplies11Challenges to vehicle electrification amid potential mineral shortages13Challenges from food prices.14National and global support for climate action15Regional economic outlook...16Developed economies16North America.16Japan and developed Asia16Europe.17Economies in transition.17Developing economies .19Africa.19East Asia19South Asia.20Western Asia20Latin America and the Caribbean21 TableGrowth of world outputFiguresGrowth of world gross product12Major commodity prices.3Global annual inflation 4Annual inflation by regions5Share of countries in debt distress6Central bank interest rate decisions.oiaea Aq ozoz u saonos Aiaua (an [issoj suoun ueadoung128Selected commodity prices.14 9Refugee influx from Ukraine, by country of first entry.18 Global macroeconomic trendsGlobal overviewThe global economy may be on the cusp of a new crisis, while still recovering from thepandemic. The war in Ukraine has upended the fragile recovery from the pandemic, trigger-ing a devastating humanitarian crisis in Europe, pushing up food and commodity prices andexacerbating inflationary pressures worldwide. Geopolitical and economic uncertaintiesare dampening business confidence and investment and further weakening short-termeconomic prospects. Against this backdrop, the global economy is now projected to growby only 3.1 per cent in 2022 and 2023 (see figure 1), marking substantial downward revi-sions of 0.9 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively, from our previous forecast released in January 2022.1 Our baseline outlook faces major downside risks from further intensifica-tion of the war in Ukraine, new waves of the pandemic and faster-than-expected monetarytightening in the developed economies.Figure1Growthofworldgross product,2015-2023Percentage*WESP 2022.WESP mid-202264.043.5.......23.13.10201520162017201820192020202120222023-2Souree: UN DESA4Note: f forecasts.The downgrades in growth prospects are broad-based (see table 1). The UnitedStates economy is forecast to slow to 2.6 per cent in 2022 due to high inflationary pressures,aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and a strong US dollar, worseningnet export balances. In China, GDP is projected to expand by 4.5 per c