移动货币：数字支付如何影响经济增长

GSMA Mobile Money The GSMA is a global organisation unifying the mobileecosystem to discover, develop and deliver innovationfoundational to positive business environmentsand societal change. Our vision is to unlock thefull power of connectivity so that people, industryand society thrive. Representing mobile operatorsand organisations across the mobile ecosystemand adjacent industries, the GSMA delivers for itsmembers across three broad pillars: Connectivity for The GSMA Mobile Money programme works toaccelerate the development of the mobile moneyecosystem for the underserved. For more information, please contact us:www.gsma.com/mobilemoneymobilemoney@gsma.com@GSMAMobileMoney We invite you to find out more atgsma.comFollow the GSMA on Twitter/X:@GSMA The Mobile Money programme is supported by theBill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Authors Gianluca StorchiKalvin BahiaHarry Fernando Aquije Ballon Published October 2023 © 2023 – GSMA. Contents Introduction:Searching for mobile money’s impact beyond financial inclusion Evidence for mobile money’s positive impact on GDP Quantifying the macroeconomic impact of mobile money Conclusion:How policy can drive mobile money adoption Appendix Figure list Figure 1Registered mobile money accounts by region, 2013–2022Number of registered accounts (millions)Figure 2The potential impact of mobile money on socio-economic outcomesFigure 3Simulated impact of mobile money on GDP in mobile money countries, 2013–2022 Introduction:Searching for mobile Over the past decade, mobile money has become a mainstreamfinancial service across many low- and middle-income countries Between 2013 and 2022, the number of registered mobile moneyaccounts increased from 200 million to 1.6 billion (Figure 1). TheCOVID-19 pandemic led to an increase in mobile money adoption, Several research papers and empirical evidence havehighlighted the positive social and economic impactof mobile money on individuals, households andbusinesses. These examples have shown that mobilemoney reduces transaction costs for users and helpshouseholds manage their cash flow, enabling them This report summarises the results of aneconometric analysis carried out by GSMAIntelligence, commissioned by the GSMA MobileMoney programme. It establishes a causal linkbetween the adoption of digital financial servicesin LMICs and long-term economic growth. It relies While the micro-level effects are well documented,the macroeconomic impacts of mobile money aremuch less understood – particularly in relationto GDP growth (Figure 2). Economic theory andprevious literature have established a link between Figure 2 Evidence for mobilemoney’s positive impact Overall, an increase in mobile money adoption can lead to a rise inGDP. The study found that a 10 percentage point increase in mobile Comparing this to the uptake of mobile technology, the study foundthat a 10 percentage point increase in mobile adoption increasedGDP by 1% to 1.3%. Previous efforts to assess the impact of mobiletechnology on economic growth have tended to find that a 10%increase in mobile adoption increases GDP by 1%–3%, depending on In addition to the increase in mobile moneyadoption, there has also been more intense use ofmobile money services per user. The average annual Result 2 Higher adoption of mobile moneycombined with higher transaction valuesdrive economic growth. The study found that the impact of mobile money isenhanced through broader and more intense usageof mobile money. Specifically, greater transactionvalues and the use of products such as merchant Result 3 Mobile money has a greater impact onGDP growth as the share of ecosystemtransactions increases. Consumers are using a broader and moresophisticated range of mobile money use cases(products). In 2013, almost two-thirds of globalmobile money transactions were cash-ins, cash-outs or airtime top-ups. By 2022, around 60% The study showed that mobile money experiencessignificant network effects, with the economicimpacts increasing as more users adopt theservice. This is similar to what has been found inmost markets where digital and telecommunicationservices have grown significantly. The benefits Result 4 The effect of mobile money adoptionon GDP increases as more users adopt Quantifying themacroeconomic impact +$600 billion As of 2022, total GDP in mobile money countries was almost$600 billion greater than it would have been without mobile money. The four results were applied to how mobile moneyis used in each country with a mobile money service5between 2013 and 2022. Through this, it is possibleto simulate how GDP would have evolved during At the end of 2022, total GDP was almost$600 billion6higher than it would have been withoutmobile money in these countries. This is equivalent to Simulated impact of mobile money on GDPin mobile money countries, 2013–20227 GDP (2017 $PPP, trillions) Around 40% of the impact of mobile money wasdriven by more frequent and broader use