流展《从零到英雄》

From Zero to Hero 23 October 2025 Scores on the Doors: gold 56.2%, stocks 19.7%, bitcoin 16.9%, IG bonds 10.3%, HYbonds 9.3%, govt bonds 7.3%, commods 6.6%, cash 3.5%, US$-8.8%, oil -13.8% YTD. Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“10-year Treasury yields down 20bps since beginning of US governmentshutdown, so maybe it’s something the Brits and French could try?” The Biggest Picture: in 24 months after Lehman bankruptcy 313 global central bankrate cuts as US nominal GDP fell 2.5%peak-to-trough during GFC; in past 24 months312 global rate cuts at the same time as US nominal GDP up 11% (Chart 2)...littlewonderworld positioned for booms, bubbles and debasement. Tale of the Tape: gold froth knocked…gold inflows past 4 months greater than inflowsof prior 14 years, and tough to press debasement trades when 10-year yield below 4%,US ran budget surplus in Sept(Chart 3), US dollar can’t break below April low (DXY 98). Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com The Price is Right: since One Big Beautiful Bill signed in July zero-coupon Treasurybonds (ZROZ10.7%) have paced Nasdaq (10.7%), bested S&P 500 (8.5%); if Sept CPI3% andyields continue to bleed lower, bond vigilantes likely to capitulate. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Global central bank policy rate cuts: 2-year cumulative Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets andthe financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 12.12890981 Timestamp: 23 October 2025 08:44PM EDT Weekly Flows: $23.6bn into cash, $17.2bn into bonds, $14.2bn into stocks, $8.7bn intogold (biggest ever), $0.3bn out of crypto (1stoutflow in 10 weeks). Flows to Know: •Cash: annualizing $1.1tn inflow in '25…2ndbiggest ever;•Gold: annualizing $108bn inflow in '25…biggest ever (Chart 11);•IG bonds: annualizing $415bn inflow in '25…biggest ever;•Stocks: annualizing $693bn inflow in '25…3rdbiggest ever;•Tech: annualizing $55bn inflow in '25…3rdbiggest ever (record $24bn inflows past 5weeks);•Energy: biggest inflow since Oct'23 ($1.1bn). BofA Private Clients: $4.2tn AUM…stocks $2.7tn, Mag 7 $700bn, international stocks$150bn, Treasury bills & bonds $150bn, gold $24bn; past 4 weeks, BofA private clientsbuying IG, HY & EM bond ETFs, selling growth, utilities, and healthcare ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: dips from 6.4 to 6.2 on weaker global stock index breadth,outflows from HY bonds & EM stocks, deteriorating credit technicals. BofA Rules & Tools: trading rules no longer measuring extreme bull…BofA GlobalBreadth Rule hit overbought 89% Sept 17th, now back to 64%, BofA Global Flow TradingRule hit sell signal Oct 8thas 4-week inflows >1% AUM, now back to 0.2%; Global FMSCash Rule still below 4%, still in contrarian sell territory (Table 3). On Gold: bulls say decade-to-date for every $100 into stocks, just $4 into gold (Chart10), 2. GLD was biggest ETF in world back in Aug’11 now #10, gold structurally under-owned = 0.5% of BofA private client AUM, 2.4% of institutional AUM (perBofA OctoberGlobal FMS); bears say gold inflows past 4 months ($50bn) larger than all inflows prior14 years, and FMS said“long gold”= most crowded trade; we stay long gold to hedgeUS boom, AI bubble, US$ debasement risk, more asset price inflation on Fed put, Trumpput, new Gen Z put (US equity wealth on pace for $10tn jump in 2025 – Chart 8). On Bonds: bulls say, per BofA October Global FMS, institutions running largest UW ofbonds since Oct 2022, most FMS investors predic