回购市场陷入一片混乱……以及为何可能随之出现历史性的暴涨

尽管这些都是截⾄周五的利率⽔平，但周⼀的⼀般抵押品交易数据显示，市场并未趋于稳定，利率依然波动剧烈，即便市场参与者预期融资成本会在⽉末、加拿⼤财年末和国债票息拍卖结算结束后恢复正常。 According to ICAP, overnight GC repo rates first traded at4.24%, 4.23%, 4.22%, 4.20%, 4.18%, 4.17%, 4.18%, 4.19%,4.20%, 4.18%, 4.17%, 4.14% with a bid-ask of 4.20%-4.14%.By comparison, on Friday overnight GC for Monday last tradedat 4.25%/4.23% after opening at 4.19%, 4.20%, 4.22%, 4.25%,4.28%. MBS for Monday traded at 4.31%/4.28% after openingat 4.23%, 4.25%, 4.30%, 4.31% 这⾃然让我们得出⼀个结论：由于政府停摆实际上起到了加息的作⽤，从市场抽⾛了超过7000亿美元的流动性，现状⼀旦逆转，将导致新资⾦如洪⽔般涌⼊市场——因为财政部不再受政府停摆特殊会计规则约束，会将美联储财政部⼀般账户中的数千亿美元现⾦释放到更⼴泛的经济体中。 Which is why the fate of the capital markets - and suchliquidity-heavy assets as bitcoin, small caps and prettymuch everything non-AI - is now in the hands of ChuckSchumer.Once the Democrat capitulates and agrees to reopen 这就是资本市场的命运——以及⽐特币、⼩盘股和⼏乎所有⾮AI类⾼流动性资产的命运——如今掌握在查克·舒默⼿中的原因。⼀旦⺠主党⼈妥协并同意重启政府，预计回购市场将迅速恢复正常，所有⻛险资产将迎来弹⼸式飙升。