PEN和ZAR：两个黄金矿业国的故事

PEN and ZAR: A tale of two goldminers Gold is likely to remain in a bull market, which should providea fundamental boost to the PEN and ZAR. Gold caught up tocopper in Peru's exports,liftingthe PEN's fair value.Meanwhile, it has decreased the ZAR's sensitivity to globalrisk, enhancing its attractiveness as a carry trade. Erick Martinez+1 212 526 9380erick.martinez@barclays.comBCI, US Marek Raczko+44 (0) 20 3134 0089marek.raczko@barclays.comBarclays, UK •The bull run in gold has brought gold-sensitive EM currencies into focus, namely the Peruviansol and South African rand. Gold's share of total exports has surged in Peru (boosted by priceand quantity increases), now virtually matching the value of its copper exports. This is notminor for the PEN, as both metals have fundamental support in the current environment andthe currency has moved closely with terms of trade this year. Andrea Kiguel+1 212 526 8954andrea.kiguel@barclays.comBCI, US LefterisFarmakis+44 (0) 20 3555 6549lefteris.farmakis@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Our BEER model suggests that stronger terms of trade have pushed the model-implied fairvalue of the PEN meaningfully higher. We still see room for the PEN to appreciate in thisenvironment. The BCRP could buy USD in the spot market, but this does not seem to be amajor risk just yet, as reserves are on the high side. •The ZAR has been more more erratic to terms of trade than the PEN. Unlike Peru, South Africahas reduced its gold extraction over time. Our long-term USDZAR misvaluation model, whichcontrols only for the broad USD and global carry sentiment, does not suggest any valuationdistortion due to the gold price surge. •However, the ZAR benefits from gold-driven terms-of-trade improvements more indirectly, inour view. Rather than strong ZAR appreciation, we have observed a decrease in the ZAR'ssensitivity to global risk factors. Thiseffectshould enhance its attractiveness as a global carrydestination. PEN and ZAR: A tale of two gold miners The PEN and ZAR are the main gold proxies in EM FX Gold has been a stand-out performer this year. Despite the recent correction, we think the bullmarket still has legs and that gold can sustain a sizable premium going forward (see this note). The PEN and the ZAR screen as the best gold proxies in the EM space, as Peru and South Africaare two of the world's leading gold producers and export enough quantities of gold material toaffecttheir terms of trade. Both currencies have experienced a considerable tailwind from gold Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 7.Completed: 24-Oct-25, 15:40 GMTReleased: 27-Oct-25, 13:00 GMTRestricted - External since end-2024, with terms of trade improving by 30% in Peru and 10% in South Africa. Rollingregressions controlling for EMFX performance, for example, show elasticities of 0.2-0.3% for thePEN and ZAR per 1% terms of tradeshift. PEN: Gold now rivals copper exports Gold's share of total exports has surged in Peru... Peru has long been recognized as a major copper exporter, with the base metal traditionallydominating its export basket. However, the gold bull market has significantly altered thiscomposition. As of August 2025, the value of Peruvian gold exports reached approximatelyUSD1.9bn (as a result of both higher prices and larger quantities), and is now close to matchingthe value of copper exports (USD2.2bn). Together, gold and copper now account for roughly75% of the value of traditional Peruvian exports, underscoring their combined importance forthe country's trade dynamics. ... making it a relevant driver for the PEN, which has been propelled by terms oftrade This is not minor for the PEN, as both metals have fundamental support in the currentenvironment and the currency has moved closely with terms of trade this year (Figure 5). Peru'sterms of trade have historically been driven by the relative price gap between copper and oil.That is, higher copper prices improve export revenues, while lower oil prices reduce importcosts, jointly supporting the external balance and, in turn, the PEN. Gold recently emerged as amajor driver, with PEN-gold correlations rivaling copper (Figure 6), suggesting that higher goldprices could materially improve the country's terms of trade. Our BEER model suggests room for appreciation, despite modest overvaluation We use a BEER model to put this shock in a real exchange rate framework to have a medium-term anchor. The gold surge is treated as a positive productivity shock to the tradable sector,which should