生成型人工智能如何改写出版业的剧本

How Generative AI isrewritingpublishing’splaybook Charles DePommerolRaulEstebanPabloHabererJeffYoussefKatieGunn PREPARING PUBLISHINGTOUNLOCK GROWTH,EFFICIENCY,AND INNOVATION IN THE AIERA Generative AI and autonomous digital agents have moved from fringeexperiments to the very center of the publishing business model. Inbarely 24 months they have forced many publishers to rethink everythingfrom copyright strategy and newsroom workflows to how they monetizeattention. In the same window, Google’s AI-generated “Overviews” havebegun siphoning a meaningful share of search-originated traffic, while aflurry of multimillion-dollar data licensing deals has signaled that high-quality journalistic and educational content may finally have pricing powerin the AIera. The result is a strategic knife-edge: Applied wisely, these technologies can cut unit costs bydouble digits and unlock premium services that publishers once only imagined; mishandled,they threaten to divert 30% or more of audience reach and advertising value to platform-owned“zero-click.” THE VIEW FROMEXECUTIVES Imagine a landscape where, according to a recentOliver Wymansurvey of 150 industryleaders, AI-driven content creation is anticipated as the single most transformative forceshaping the future of the industry over the coming decade. Remarkably, 31% of respondentshighlight AI-driven content creation as the top development that will redefine publishing,surpassing trends like immersive experiences, niche community growth, and globalcontentcollaboration. This emphasis on AI underscores executives’ deep recognition of the technology’s profoundpotential to revolutionize content production. In the near future, AI will streamline editorialworkflows, empower the scalable generation of personalized content, and optimize contentdistribution across diverse platforms and audiences — yielding remarkable gains in bothefficiency and audienceengagement. Looking ahead, executives foresee substantial acceleration in technology and innovationinvestments, with 27% projecting them to have the largest increases of any area over boththe next five-year and 10-year period. This momentum aligns seamlessly with the broaderindustry drive to embed AI and advanced technologies into publishing operations. Contentcreation also continues to be an investment priority, with 25% and 21% of executivesexpecting continued funding growth over the next five and 10 years,respectively. Exhibit 1:AI has quickly become top of mind for all executives in thepublishing industry, exemplified by the responses from A Survey of 150 Media/publishingexecutives Question:What do you believe will most shape the industry over the next ten years? Question:Where do you anticipate the biggest increase in investment… A CRITICAL THREAT IN THE AIERA The rise of AI technologies has introduced a profound disruption in how traffic is generatedand consumed in the publishing industry, presenting a critical threat that demandsurgentattention. Traditional sources of traffic, particularly organic search referrals, face unprecedentedchallenges as AI-generated content summaries and interfaces increasingly siphon userattention away from publisher sites. Since early 2024, this phenomenon has escalated,with studies revealing that Google’s AI Overviews now appear on more than one in10 informational queries, reducing click-through rates for top organic search results byroughly a third. This shift has contributed to a year-on-year decline of 6% to 7% in searchtraffic for the largest publisher domains, signaling a structural transformation in audienceacquisition dynamics that could divert 30% or more of audience reach to platform-controlled “zero-click”experiences. This threat is more than just a minor inconvenience; it fundamentally undermines theeconomic foundations of digital publishing, which have long relied on robust, organictraffic to drive advertising revenue and subscription growth. Younger audiences’ growingpreference for AI chat interfaces for news discovery exacerbates this trend, as theybypass traditional search engines and direct visits to publisher websites. The resultingerosion of traffic jeopardizes both subscription and advertising revenues, posing not onlyfinancial risks but also reputational ones, as misinformation can fill the void left by reducedpublishervisibility. Publishers can no longer view defensive traffic protection as a peripheral issue. They mustrecognize it as a strategic imperative to safeguard core audience channels while adapting toAI-driven shifts in content discovery and consumption. The strategies they adopt must gobeyond traditional SEO and content marketing tactics, to include licensing archival contentto AI developers as a new revenue source, transforming zero-price scraping into recurringcash flow, and leveraging AI to offer higher-yield ad formats and personalized, AI-curatedexperiences that reinvigorate direct audienceengagement. Furthermore, embedding AI into product desig