三季报超预期；通过全方位催化剂提升业务质量值得期待

Ping An (2318 HK) 3Q earnings beat; improving business qualitywith catalysts across-the-board worth to expect Ping An reported upbeat 3Q25 results, with Group OPAT rising 7.2% YoY to RMB116.3bn in 9M25,acceleratingto a 15.2% YoY increase in3Q25and beating ourestimate of RMB114bn. This improvement was primarily driven by OPAT growthin P&C (9M/3Q25: +8.3%/+26.2% YoY),technology(9M/3Q25: +2.0x/+2.9xYoY),andthe AM segment profit turnaroundto RMB 2.7bn (9M24:a loss of RMB 2.3bn).Group net profitjumped11.5% YoY to RMB133bn in 9M25, bolstered by a 45.4%YoYescalationin 3Q25,alsoexceedingour bottom-line forecast of RMB129bn. Ifexcludingtheone-off non-operating impact, Group NPAT growth would have beenstronger to rise by 27%/82% YoY in 9M/3Q25. NBV expanded 46.2% YoY to RMB35.7bn in 9M25, translating toa58.3% YoYuptickin 3Q25, underpinnedby robustgrowth in agency (+23%) and bancassurance (+171%) channels. P&C combinedratio improved by 0.8pct YoY to 97%, benefiting from lower catastrophic lossesfroma high base,yet sequentiallyrose onmore frequent typhooneventsin 3Q25.Consideringimprovedinvestment income,easing dragfromtheAM segment,andstrengthened intra-group synergies, weraise ourFY25-27E EPS forecastsby9%/4%/5% to RMB8.0/8.3/9.2, and lift TP basedonSOTP toHK$75. Reiterate BUY. Target PriceHK$75.00(Previous TPHK$71.00)Up/Downside31.3%Current PriceHK$57.10 China Insurance Nika MA(852) 3900 0805nikama@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Key highlights:1)OPAT:Group OPATclimbed15.2% YoY to RMB38.5bnin3Q25,markinga step-up from 2.4%/4.9% YoY in 1Q/2Q25.OPAT of the threecore segments rose 2.6% YoY in 3Q25,of whichL&H/P&C/PABwas+0.6%/+26.2%/-2.8%YoY.2) NPAT: Group NPATjumped45.4% YoY to RMB64.8bnin 3Q25. If excludingtheone-offimpact ofnon-operatingitems(-RMB 9.3bn),NPAT would surge 82% YoY to RMB 68.6bnin 3Q25.3) NAV:rose 6.2% fromyear-start to RMB 986.4bn; and if added back the distributed dividends of RMB46.8bn, the growth should further tick up to 11.3% from year-start (CMBI est).4)L&H:L&H OPAT remained resilient to RMB 78.8bn (68% mix), which edged up1.9%/0.6% YoY in 9M/3Q25. NPAT surged 86% YoY to RMB 56.4bn in 3Q25,thanks to therally instockmarket and a risingyield, whichboosted short-terminvestment variancesto RMB26.1bn (9M24: 3.7bn). The number oflifeagentssequentially grew 4.1% to 354k.5) AMdrag steadily eased:continuedde-risking process in the AMsegmentbears fruit. The AM net loss reduced toRMB69mnin 3Q25(vs. 3Q24: a loss of RMB3.6bn), supporting its 9M25 profitturnaround to RMB2.7bn (vs. 9M24: a loss of RMB2.3bn).6) NBV:9M25 NBVrose46.2% YoY to RMB 35.7bn, translating toa58.3% YoYincreasein 3Q25.Agency NBVexpanded23% YoY to RMB23.2bn in 9M25,implying 35% YoYincrease in 3Q25 (CMBI est). Bancassurance NBV surged 171% YoY to RMB9.4bn, with3Q25NBV soaring 175% YoY (CMBIest).7) Life core solvency:Ping An Life’s core solvency ratio dropped 33pct QoQ to 134.5% in 3Q25, mainlydue to the capital consumption for piling up the stock allocation.8)P&CCoR:improved 0.8pct YoY to 97%,yet sequentiallylifted given risingtyphoon eventsin 3Q25.We expect non-auto CoR to enjoyfurtherheadroom for improvements. Auditor: Ernst & Young Related reports: 1.1H25 a mixed bag: NBV beat whileOPAT in line, Aug 28, 20252.1Q25 NBV stayed robust lifting L&HOPAT back to positive growth, Apr 28,20253.Life OPAT awaits for longer time toturnaround, 24 Mar, 20254.Robust 3Q doubled in NBV andearnings growth, 23 Oct, 20245.2Q NBV stabilized against a high base;expect to see Group OPAT turnaround,Aug. 27, 20246.Expect $3.5bn CB dilutive effect to beshort-term, Jul. 17, 20247.1Q24 NBV beat; Life OPAT y/y turnedpositive, Apr.15, 20248.Resilient DPS despite OPAT decline;EV assumptions change cut VNB morethan expected, Mar 27, 2024 Promising equity returns albeit a lower mix of TPL stock.Total investmentassets increased 11.9% from year-start to RMB 6.41tnin9M25.Among which,non-standard debtsfell 9% from year-start toRMB 334bn (5.2% mix),and realestate investmentsslid 1.2%QoQto RMB 204bn (3.2% mix),showcasingtheinsurer’sprudent credit risk managementandimproving asset quality. NIY/CIYrecorded at 2.8%/5.4% (unannualized),down0.3pct/up1.0pct YoY. We think thestock market performance will continue to beone of thekey earningsdriversin4Q25E, and on top of the 65%/35% OCI/TPLstockallocationmix by1H25, themgmt. guided that the company would keep the A/L duration gap of ~2yrs toenhance long-term investment income. Compared to peers, Ping An’s TPL stockallocationmixranked lower at35%, vs. China Life’s 77%/NCL’s 80%as of1H25.That said, the mgmt.sawhigh-yieldstocks as theirlong-term allocation strategy. Valuation/Catalysts.The stock is trading at 0.6x FY25E P/EV and 0.9x P/B,with a 3yr forward ROE at>13% and 5.2% yield. Looking ahead into FY26E, wethink catalysts involve 1) CSMrelease turning back to a positive trajectory, whichwe now factor in the timing in 2H26E; 2)P&C non-auto CoR to improve on the backdrop of recent non-auto regulatory actions; 3) continued de-risk