飓风梅利莎横扫巴哈马群岛；百慕大和纽芬兰将迎来热带风暴强风

October 30, 2025 Today’s final post on Melissa, barring unforeseen changes in the forecast, starts the longprocess of examining the aftermath of a historic Atlantic hurricane. Catastrophic Damage:The western third of Jamaica experienced windspeeds in a 60-mile swath comparable to an EF-2 tornado, with coastal areas and mountainouspopulations experiencing EF-3 level winds. Preliminary imagery from western Jamaicadepicts most homes uninhabitable,along with severe damage to commercial structures.For Kingston, the most populous region inJamaica, Melissa was far enough west to bringonly tropical storm force winds with initial reports of isolated damage. Widespread Impacts:Information is limited from Melissa’s subsequent landfalls in Cubaovernight Tuesday andthe Bahamas on Wednesday. With Melissa weakening significantlyto category 3 status in Cuba and category 2 status across the Bahamas, initial expectationsare for storm surge damage to low lying coastal areas and damage to older buildings andthe most vulnerable structures. Source:National Hurricane Center. Expected arrival time of tropical storm force winds forBermuda and Newfoundland. The Forecast:Melissa is rapidly accelerating northeast away from the Bahamas. Hurricanewarnings are posted for Bermuda, however model guidance suggests the hurricane willtrack far enough west that the island will likely see limited impacts consisting of tropicalstorm force winds with isolated gusts to near hurricane strength. In comparison toHurricane Imelda’s strike onBermuda earlier this season, Melissa is expected to not be asimpactful for the island.After transitioning to a large extra-tropical cyclone beyondBermuda, Melissa will bring gale force winds to Newfoundland tomorrow. Insurance Implications:According to AM Best, insurance take-up rates in the westernportion of Jamaica are quite low outside Montego Bay, on the order of 5%-10%.Thus,personal lines losses are anticipated to be mostly economic in nature rather thaninsured.Material damage in commercial lines properties, notably in the tourist destinations near the coast including Montego Bay, islikely insured by a mix of 17registered carriers in Jamaica,as well as global carriers for larger properties. For those carriers providing insurance in western Jamaica, AM Best expects reinsurers topay most of the losses,given the significant reliance of Caribbean-based carriers onreinsurance. It is reported by Artemis that theUSD150 million Jamaican parametriccatastrophe bond, called IBRD CAR Jamaica 2024, will provide funds for the country afterbeing triggered. Ultimately, Melissa will be a severe economic loss event with a slimminority of damages covered by insurance, likely raising discussion around the growth ofthe protection gap between insured and economic losses.