莱索托制定财政规则：莱索托王国（英）

Setting Up Fiscal Rules inLesotho Qianqian Zhang and Motseki Khiba SIP/2025/140 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on August 21, 2025. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/268. 2025OCT IMF Selected Issues PaperAfrican Department Setting Up Fiscal Rules in LesothoPrepared by Qianqian Zhang and Motseki Khiba Authorized for distribution by Andrew TiffinOctober 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on August 21, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/268 ABSTRACT:Lesotho’s fiscal policy has long been shaped by volatile SACU revenues and persistentexpenditure pressures, calling for a more rules-based and forward-looking framework to ensure sustainability.Recent efforts to formalize a fiscal rules framework offer an opportunity to strengthen medium-term planning,anchor debt dynamics, and build resilience to shocks. The proposed framework should center on a debt ceilingof 60 percent of GDP, a debt anchor of 50 percent of GDP, and a structural deficit target of 3 percent of GDP,supported by operational expenditure and wage-bill rules. A savings fund (stabilization fund) should be set upand be anchored on the fiscal rules, serving both stabilization and investment purposes. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Zhang. Q., M. Khiba. “Setting Up Fiscal Rules in Lesotho”. IMF Selected IssuesPaper, No. SIP 25/140. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C. SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Setting Up Fiscal Rules in Lesotho Kingdom of Lesotho Prepared by Qianqian Zhang and Motseki Khiba1 A.Introduction 1.Lesotho’s small, open economy faces persistent macroeconomic challenges, with structuralvulnerabilities and slow policy implementation hindering reform progress.Heavy reliance on SouthernAfrican Customs Union (SACU) receipts makes the country’s fiscal position highly volatile and vulnerable toregional economic conditions, while limited economic diversification exposes the economy to external demandshocks and competitiveness pressures. Fiscal management has been procyclical and is further complicated bythe rigidity of public expenditures, particularly the large wage bill, which limits the government’s ability to adjustspending in response to revenue fluctuations. As a member of the Common Monetary Area, Lesotho maintainsa fixed exchange rate peg to the South African rand, restricting the use of monetary policy to respond toshocks. Limited access to international financing further reduces Lesotho’s ability to buffer revenue shortfallsthrough borrowing. A relatively small private sector and episodes of political instability compound thesechallenges, creating a difficult environment for sustaining fiscal stability, maintaining uninterrupted delivery ofkey public services, and fostering resilient economic growth. Recent fiscal surpluses provide an opportunity to rebuild buffers and improve sustainability. 2.Latest developments indicate a notable shift in Lesotho's fiscal landscape with the emergence of a fiscalsurplus starting from FY23/24, due to strong SACU receipts and a break from the previous pattern ofprocyclical spending. Another major development has been the renegotiation of water royalty rates under theTreaty with South Africa on the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP-II), which now provides a significantlyhigher and more stable revenue stream. This shift reduces Lesotho’s reliance on SACU transfers and presentsa unique opportunity to strengthen fiscal sustainability and support long-term growth. However, realizing thesebenefits requires disciplined fiscal management, particularly given low capital spending efficiency, chronicarrears, and still elevated debt-to-GDP ratios. Strengthening public financial management and ensuring thatadditional revenues are saved and invested strategically will be critical. 3.Institutionalizing fiscal discipline through a rules-based framework will mitigate procyclicalityand enhance policy credibility.The authorities have recently advanced a policy paper stipulating a fiscalrules framework. Lesotho’s history of fragile coalition politics and weak policy continuity have underscored theneed for legally binding, well-calibrated, and enforceable fiscal rules. Such rules should be simple, transparent,and easy to operate (Eyraud et al, 2018), facilitating effective policy implementation while insulating fiscaldecision-making from political cycles. Transitioning from discretionary fiscal adjustments to a structured rules-based framework will be critical to stabilizing the macroeconomy, enhancing debt sustainability, and fosteringlong-term economic resilience. 4.This paper provides an analysis of Lesotho’s propo