存储器/硬盘更新：供应焦虑蔓延至超大规模厂商

INDUSTRY UPDATE October 20, 2025 Memory/HDD Update: Supply Anxiety CreepsInto Hyperscalers ■Semiconductor Capital Equipment■Semiconductors■Semiconductors: SemiconductorManufacturing■Technology Hardware: Storage &Peripherals THE TD COWEN INSIGHT Krish Sankar415 646 7372krish.sankar@tdsecurities.com The magnitude of the shortages and the expected duration came off as a surprise. HDDsremain most tight as storage demand expected to grow +50% at some CSPs. For DRAM, theperception is that the shortages will remain throughout 2026 and the question is whether P/BVor P/E should be the main metric for MU given the shortages. Non-cancellable LTAs into 2027can strengthen the case for the latter. Joshua Buchalter, CFA646 562 1303joshua.buchalter@tdsecurities.com Eddy Orabi415 646 7371eddy.orabi@tdsecurities.com Field Work Takeaways (Sankar): For the first time, our checks reveal deep concern within the hyperscale community regardingthe long-term availability of DRAM, NAND & HDDs. We think this supply shortage is worse than2021 as it's driven by continued increase in demand (reasoning models for DRAM and text/video for HDDs) rather than a reduction in supply (2021 controller shortages for SSDs/HDDsand equipment shortages for DRAM/NAND). Ethan Potasnick646 562 1425ethan.potasnick@tdsecurities.com Sean O'Loughlin, CFA646 562 1327sean.oloughlin@tdsecurities.com We view this asnear-term favorable for MU(pricing leverage across DRAM/NAND, moreon NAND, 60% GM by CY26 end a possibility, LTAs might make PE matter more than P/BV),medium-term HDDs(price increases will be gradual, shortage throughout 2026 driven by 50%exabyte growth, HAMR is a tailwind next year, PE multiple re-rating largely behind us), andlong-term favorable to semicaps(NAND utilization rates increasing and closing in on 100%benefits LRCX, DRAM WFE remaining midcycle in 2026 benefits AMAT which still trades at 20%discount to peers). Steven Chin415 646 7374steven.chin@tdsecurities.com Robert Mertens, CFA646 562 1338robert.mertens@tdsecurities.com HDDs appear to be the most constrained today as capacity additions throughout 2026 remainvery limited. Also, for the first time, hyperscalers seem to be the ones pushing for supplyagreements for 2027 (not the other way around). Suppliers remain very cautious about addingcapacity only for incremental shipments to coincide with a 'potential' softness in demand in2027 (note that MU had net-cash position pre-2021 vs $4B net-debt today while STX net-debt is30% higher). Sam Reiff, CFA312 577 2217sam.reiff@tdsecurities.com Lannie Trieu, CFA415 646 7217lannie.trieu@tdsecurities.com Interestingly, our work indicates that LLM customers are willing to pay CSPs a premium forSSD storage to get faster data access times. This can potentially open the door for solutionslike PSTG DFMs, but this remains in early stages. Importantly, we do not see this as "HDD vsSSD debate", but a "rising tide lifts all boats" scenario. Specifically, our work indicates that2026 HDD exabyte storage demand is expected to grow more than 50% Y/Y for some CSPs forthe 2nd consecutive year, suggesting further upside to C26 estimates. Pricing is also expectedto increase 5-10% for WDC next year (STX more capacity constrained). We think if AI spend continues at this trajectory, +50% gross margins for HDD OEMs (fromhigh 30s% today) driven by pricing would be a possibility. We also think the re-rating stagecould be largely over for HDDs, with future stock performance driven by pricing and HAMR GMaccretion from here (which has room for further growth). For DRAM, the view is that it will remain in shortage in 1H26 & the question now is if that willcontinue into 2H26. Assuming no major negative changes in AI builds, we believe shortageswill remain throughout 2026. This can result in 60% gross margins for MU exiting CY26 (from51% today), and a run-rate EPS of ~$23. A 12x earnings multiple on that would equate to $275stock. Of course, this suggests that the P/BV metric will pass the baton to PE multiple and that MU'sP/BV NTM will remain around the 3x level, a range the stock did not hold for long before. Wethink our thesis here will last as long as shortages remain in place and BV continues to grow. Please see pages 11 to 15 of this report for important disclosures. TDSecurities.com Non-cancellable LTAs can support this view, and we think hyperscalers can potentially enterinto these agreements in 2H:26 if shortages continue. To get to 60% GMs exiting CY26, DRAM ASPs need to grow 25-30% from estimated Nov Qlevels while NAND ASPs need to grow 20%. That ASP setup looks increasingly achievable givenongoing AI server demand. End Market Demand Commentary Cloud/Enterprise Demand (85% of HDDs, ~40% of DRAM, 35% of NAND): For DRAM, mainstream server DRAM content per DIMM is expected to increase 50% in 2026 to96GB per DIMM with 128GB kicking in later in the year. For HDDs, exabyte demand from CSPs is expected to grow "at least 50%" in 2026 after a 50%inc