即使指导削减后仍保持谨慎

Anta Sports (2020 HK) Staying cautious even after guidance cut 3Q25 retail salesgrowthwasall inline, in our view, but that was partially due toCMBI and investors’low expectation(as industry and macro conditions gotworse lately). While management highlighted that Oct 2025 sales trend is underpressurewithguidance cut for Anta brand, we are also concerned about retaildiscounts for FILA brand, as itsinventories continue to climb, esp. under sucha weak macro backdrop. We stillmaintainBUYwithalong-run positive view,but we are more cautious intheshort run(inline with ourdecision todowngradesportswearsector’s ratingto MARKET-PERFORM in early Oct 2025). Target PriceHK$105.30(Previous TPHK$118.55)Up/Downside25.3%Current PriceHK$84.05 China Consumer DiscretionaryWalter WOO(852) 3761 8776walterwoo@cmbi.com.hk Retail sales trend in Oct 2025 was kind of under pressure.Managementhighlighted that retail sales growth was quite subdued in early Oct 2025 butimproved in mid Oct 2025. However,the initial trend of the 2025 double 11festival was not too encouraging.Butwenoted that, while the new brandsdo face similar challenges, their tracking numbers are still fast and healthy. Stock Data Cutting retail sales growth target for Anta while keeping that for FILAandother brands.Therefore,the FY25 guidance was modified,Anta’sretail sales growth target will be revised down from MSD to LSDwhile thatfor FILA will remain unchanged at MSD, and the other brands’ target hasstayed at 40% or above.Anta brand’s risks, in our view,aremore aboutsales growth.For Anta Shareholding Structure brand,we can see several risks here,including:1)after weaker thanplannedretail sales growth in 2Q25 and 3Q25, performance so far in 4Q25Ehasalso been disappointing,2)macro uncertainty is still high andcompetitionfrom peers has intensified throughout the year, 3) reforms on e-commerce business may continue todrag, 4) while performance of manynew store formats are reasonably good,thespeedofstore expansion is asnot as fast as forecasted, and 5) developmentand store expansion of theAnta Super Stores has taken more time than expected. But margin wise, wedo think itsOP margin of 20% to 25% is still achievable, because: 1) itschannel inventoryishealthy,andhence the pressure on retail discount ismanageable,2) A&P expenses could be reduced and redirected(maysponsor moreothernational teams), as the sponsorshipwith COCwillendthis year,and 3) expenses related to overseas expansion will be ratherdisciplined.Maintain BUY but trim TP to HK$ 105.30, based on 19x FY26E P/E. (cut from 21x, because of guidance cut and rising macro headwinds).Wehave revised down FY25E/ 26E/ 27E net profitforecastsby 1%/ 2%/ 2%, inorder to factor in: 1) slower-than-expected offline SSSG and e-commerc esales in 3Q25,and 2) weaker-than-expected GP margin (esp. for FILA). Thestock is trading at15xFY26E P/E, not too demanding vs its5-yearaverageof 25x. We maintain our BUY rating. But noted that while we are positive onthemid to long-term growth (esp. outdoor and overseas),there are certainrisks in the near term: 1) deteriorating macro conditions, 2) potentially longerthan expected time to reform Anta and FILA and 3) competition may furtherincrease if Li Ning and Nike plan to come back next year.Earnings Summary Source: FactSet Recent Reports:Topsports (6110 HK)-Guidance kept;prioritizing profit over sales(27Oct25) JNBY Design (3306 HK)-Sales trendimproved but guidance is prudent(10Sep25) Anta Sports (2020 HK)-Softer Anta andstronger others, as expected(28Aug25) Li Ning (2331 HK)-Still positive despiteall margin drags in 2H25E(25Aug25) Xtep (1368 HK)-FY25E guidanceunchanged after 1H25 beat(19Aug25) 361 Degrees (1361 HK)-Guidanceunchanged but w e areconcerned(15Aug25) While we are still comfortable withFILA’s retail sales growth, its GP marginahead could be slightly worrying.We think FILA can still deliver its retail sales growthtarget, because: 1) FILA’s reform since late 2024 is still yielding certain positive (tennis,golf and functional productshave outperformed),2) its e-commerce business is bettermanagedand growing faster than peers(Taobao+Tmall continue to improve andDouyin to stay fast),3) it has doubled down on the professional tennis category(become the sole sponsor for China Tennis Open and signed Yunchaokete Bu as itsfirst spokesperson in Sep 2025), and 4) it has launched more different formats and islikely to speed up the store revamp.However,in our view, there are risks for FILA toachieve the 25%-30% OP margin target, such as:1) potential pressure for inventoryclearanceand higher retail discounts (given its inventory pile up),2)continuousincrease in e-commerce sales mix (which may dampen more on its overall GP marginbut less on OP margin), 3)steeperthan expecteddecline inpurchasing power (thismay hinder sales of those high-end, functional and professional products). Other brands’ strong momentum is still sustaininginto 2H25E.Other brands’ retailsales growth was at 45