现场直播：热带风暴梅丽莎

GC GSA NA Event Response, (Tropical Storm Melissa 10/24/2025 Update) Current Conditions:At 8 a.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center has recorded Melissa as a 45-mph tropical storm 185 miles SE of Kingston, Jamaica. Melissa remains asymmetric due to highwind shear and dry air to the west. The current estimated motion is east-south-east at 1 mph. Thisreversal in motion after the slow drift north yesterday has resulted in the center of Melissa staying ina 50-mile diameter circle over the last 24 hours. Near Term Hazards:Hurricane conditions are possible in southwestern Haiti on Saturday andJamaica beginning late Saturday or Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Haitilater today and in Jamaica on Saturday. Melissa is expected to bring 8 to 14 inches of rain to southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti,and eastern Jamaica through Sunday night, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavyrainfall is likely beyond Sunday night; however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speedreduces confidence in exact totals. 72-Hour Outlook:Melissa is forecasted to move north for 24 hours with a turn to the westexpected to occur sometime around noon Saturday. Slight strengthening is projected over the next24 hours as the storm’s alignment continues to be dislodged by high wind shear. There remains highforecast uncertainty even at these shorter forecast periods due to the challenge initializing thesheared vortex (with no clear circulation center) in the high-resolution dynamical models. Once thestorm adopts a clear center, forecast uncertainty will drop appreciably (likely tomorrow afternoon). By mid-day Saturday, shear is forecasted to subside slightly, which will allow Melissa to tap into anideal environment with ocean heat content and sea surface temperature anomalously high for theregion and time of year. Potential land interaction and high wind shear to the north are the keyvariables that could potentially counteract the intensification.The National Hurricane Center isforecasting a 115-mph, category 3 hurricane by Sunday evening but there is potential for a category4+ hurricane early Monday, according to some high-resolution model guidance. A close approachor even major hurricane landfall in Jamaica by early next week is considered a plausible scenario. Long Range Forecast: Looking at longer forecasts from multi-model ensembles, there is potentialfor a sharp northeast turn toward Cuba after 72 hours, but this forecast range is more uncertain.The timing ofthe turn towards Cuba still has significant disagreement in the models.A fewensemble members show a more southwestward track, bringing Melissajust offshore offofNicaragua before turning towards Cuba. At this point, almost all model guidance suggests Melissawill notaffect theeastern United States. Regardless, it is stilltoo early for any definitive statementabout potential impacts to the United States or Canada. With the forecasted stalling of Melissa, no additional statements from the CAT ResourceCenter on Hurricane Melissa are planned this weekend unless a major hurricane landfall isimminent in the Caribbean or forecasted impacts for Bermuda or North America change significantly. North America Peril Advisory will continue monitoring North Atlantic activity andissue updates as needed. NHC 10/24/25 8 am EDT cone for Tropical Storm Melissa NOAA GOES-19 8:20 am EDT Geocolor Satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Melissa 10/24/25 06Z late model guidance for Tropical Storm Melissa 10/24/25 00Z Multi-model ensemble (EPS + UKMET + GEFS + CMC) 7-day forecast for TropicalStorm Melissa