预测CBDC的支付偏好：离散选择实验

Predicting the paymentpreference for CBDC: adiscrete choiceexperiment by Syngjoo Choi, Bongseop Kim, Young Sik Kim, OhikKwon and Soeun Park Monetary and Economic Department October 2025 JEL classification: E40, E50, C90 Keywords: payment preference,retailCBDC, discretechoice experiment BISWorking Papers are written by members of the Monetary and EconomicDepartment of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by othereconomists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topicalinterest and are technical in character. The views expressed in this publication arethose of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS or its membercentral banks. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). Predicting the Payment Preference for CBDC:A Discrete Choice Experiment∗ Syngjoo Choi†Bongseop Kim‡Young Sik Kim§Ohik Kwon¶Soeun Park‖ September18,2025 Abstract Toovercomethelackofdatainpredictingthepaymentpreferenceforcentralbankdigitalcurrency(CBDC),weconductedadiscretechoiceexperimentthatvariedtheattributesofpaymentmethodsamongover3,500participantsinKorea.Weidentifiedkeyattributes,suchasthediscountrateandtheissuanceform,thatshapethedemandforpaymentmethods.ThepredictedusagesharesofexistingpaymentmethodscloselyalignwiththeiractualusagepatternsinKorea,whichlendscrediblesupportfortheexternalvalidityofourexperimentaldesign.Buildingonthisvalidation,wefurtherpredictthatCBDC,whenintroduced,willbepreferredovercashandmobilefastpay-mentbutlesspreferredthancreditanddebitcards,withitsadoptionrateasthemostpreferredpaymentmethodranging19−27%ofrespondents. Keywords:PaymentPreference,CBDC,DiscretechoiceexperimentJELclassifica-tionnumbers:E40,E50,C90 1Introduction Many central banks around the world are considering the issuance of retail central bankdigital currency (CBDC), a type of digital money issued by the central bank to businessesand households. To study the impact of CBDC, it is important to predict the demand forCBDC when it is introduced as a means of payment. Although there is a growing bodyof theoretical research that examines the implications of a CBDC for the payment sys-tem, financial stability, and monetary policy (e.g., Williamson (2022), Keister and Sanches(2022), Garratt and van Oordt (2021)), the scarcity of data poses a challenge for empiricalresearch. The purpose of our study is to predict the preference for CBDC as a payment instru-ment. For this purpose, we characterize CBDC as a new bundle of payment attributes.Using the method of discrete choice experiments, we estimate preferences for these at-tributes and then use the estimated preferences to predict the preference for CBDC. In asurvey of a nationally representative sample in South Korea, respondents are presentedwith pairs of hypothetical payment methods, each characterized by nine attributes, andasked to indicate their preferred choice in each pair. By randomly assigning attribute val-ues, we examine the preferences of individual respondents for the relevant attributes ofthe payment methods. The discrete choice experiment allows us to identify preferences for payment methodsthat may be difficult to discern from real-world data. In the real world, payment methodsexist as a combination of different attributes, making it difficult to identify which attributeplays a significant role in observed usage data of payment methods. For example, even ifwe can observe that people primarily use credit cards, it is difficult to distinguish betweenpreferences for payment methods issued by private financial institutions and preferencesfor an instrument in the form of a plastic card. Discrete choice experiments overcome thisproblem by allowing a researcher to capture most of the relevant attributes of the paymentmethods and to create situations in which the individual attribute values are exogenouslyvaried for causal interpretation. Specifically, we consider the following nine attributes found in the literature to be thecore characteristics relevant to the choice of available payment instruments, such as cash,credit and debit card, mobile payment: (i) issuer, (ii) form of issuance, (iii) disclosure ofinformation type, (iv) merchant acceptance, (v) risk of loss, (vi) discount rate, (vii) delayin payment, (viii) timing of settlement, and (ix) monthly fee (see, e.g., Jonker, 2007; Ram-bure and Nacamuli, 2008; Chen et al., 2019; Drehmann et al., 2002). Each of the nineattributes consists of a few values, such as three issuers (central bank, private financial institution, and BigTech company) and three forms of issuance (banknote, plastic card,and smartphone app), as detailed in Table 1. Respondents are presented with pairs ofthese hypothetical payment methods constructed with nine attribute values and asked toindicate their preferred choice in each pair. This exercise is repeated five times per re-spondent, with each iteration involving a different pair of hypothetical payment methodscharact