放松对工作保护的监管：来自意大利的生产力和收入分配证据

EVIDENCE ON PRODUCTIVITYAND INCOME DISTRIBUTION FROM ITALY Gabriele Ciminelli and Guido Franco ADB ECONOMICSWORKING PAPER SERIES ADB Economics Working Paper Series Deregulating Job Protection: Evidence on Productivityand Income Distribution from Italy Gabriele Ciminelli (gciminelli@adb.org) isan economist at the Economic Research andDevelopment Impact Department, AsianDevelopment Bank. Guido Franco(g.franco@confindustria.it) is a senior economistat Centro Studi Confindustria. Gabriele Ciminelli and Guido FrancoNo. 809 | October 2025 TheADB Economics Working Paper Seriespresents research in progress to elicit commentsand encourage debate on development issuesin Asia and the Pacific. The views expressedare those of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect the views and policies of ADB orits Board of Governors or the governmentsthey represent. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2025. ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (PDF)Publication Stock No. WPS250405-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS250405-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. ABSTRACT This paper investigates the impact of job protection deregulation on firms’ productivity, leveraging asize-based cutoff in the eligibility criteria of a pivotal 2014 labor market reform in Italy. The reform replacedreinstatement requirements with a progressive compensation system for unjust dismissals of new hires infirms with more than 15 employees, while leaving smaller firms unaffected.We find that total factorproductivity increased by 1% in treated firms relative to control firms, on average, in each of the 5 yearsfollowing the reform’s implementation. Labor productivity gains were slightly larger, also driven by capitaldeepening. Next, we extend the analysis to uncover how the productivity gains were distributed betweenemployers and workers. Capital owners benefited more, as the reform led to a gradual decline in the laborshare of value added, reaching 0.7 percentage points after 5 years. Keywords:employment protection legislation, job protection deregulation, total factor productivity, capitaldeepening, income distribution, labor share of income JEL codes:D22, D24, J08, J41, O43 1INTRODUCTION Over the last decades, productivity growth has slowed significantly in many economies around the world.Existing studies attribute this slowdown to structural factors such as weaker innovation, technologicaldiffusion, and investment dynamics (Goldinet al., 2024).Reforms to employment protection legislation(EPL) are typically considered by governments with the aim of raising employment, as they reducedismissal restrictions and therefore firms’ reluctance to hire on permanent contracts.Yet, as EPL mayaffect the ease with which firms adjust their workforce, such reforms could also have implications forproductivity.Understanding how EPL reforms affect this margin is important to assess not only theiremployment consequences, but also their potential to help revive productivity growth. By regulating dismissals, EPL is designed to balance th