您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。[环球富盛理财]:价格竞争导致业绩承压,特气需求有望延续增长 - 发现报告

价格竞争导致业绩承压,特气需求有望延续增长

2025-10-22庄怀超环球富盛理财向***
AI智能总结
查看更多
价格竞争导致业绩承压,特气需求有望延续增长

价格竞争导致业绩承压,特气需求有望延续增长 Price competition puts pressure&Demand for specialty gases isto continue to grow 最新动态 ➢特气需求端回暖、价格端承压。2025H1,电子特气行业呈现“需求端回暖、价格端承压”的显著特征,公司部分核心特气产品销量增长明显,但是由于行业价格竞争进一步加剧,产品销售价格受到影响,价格下行直接对冲了销售增长的积极效应,导致公司整体销售收入未能同步提升,反而呈现同比下滑态势。由于2025H1公司部分费用增加以及汇兑损益的影响,叠加公司需按规定计提可转债利息费用形成的额外财务支出,公司25H1利润仍受一定影响 动向解读 ➢通过自主创新,加速国产替代。2025年,公司将进一步巩固优势,重点针对集成电路、新能源、医疗大健康等领域的关键气体产品展开研发。在集成电路领域,公司致力于通过自主创新,为国内芯片制造企业提供高质量气体产品,助力产业突破技术瓶颈,加速国产替代。公司已有55款电子特气产品可实现进口替代;尽管近年来国内企业有所发展,但截至2024年,海外气体巨头依然占据国内特气市场的主导地位,公司在国内的市场份额占比不到5%。公司将加速推进乙硅烷、溴化氢等高端电子特气产品的成果转化,加快认证进程,提升产品的市场竞争力和占有率;积极开拓更多细分市场,通过深入挖掘市场需求,精准定位目标客户群体,与客户建立起长期、稳固且互利共赢的供应合作关系,进一步夯实公司在国内市场覆盖的领先地位。 ➢半导体行业的稳健增长有望带动电子特种气体的需求。受到AI、云基础设施等领域持续需求的推动,WSTS预测,预计2025年全球半导体市场销售额将达到7009亿美元,同比增长11.2%,预计2026年继续增长8.5%。由于人工智能(AI)半导体的需求持续推动晶圆消耗,TECHCET的数据显示,2025年半导体制造材料市场预计将同比增长近8%,整体半导体材料市场在2023年至2028年间的年均复合增长率(CAGR)将达到5.6%,并在2028年突破840亿美元。随着技术的不断进步和市场需求的逐步释放,半导体行业有望在未来几年继续保持稳健增长,从而带动电子特种气体的需求增长。 策略建议 ➢盈利预测。我们给予公司2025-2027年归母净利润为2.12、2.42、2.79亿元,结合同行业可比公司估值,给予公司2026年35倍PE,对应目标价70.35元,首次覆盖给予“收集”评级。 风险提示 市场价格竞争的风险、特气需求不及预期、关税战的风险。 What’s New ➢The demand side of special gas is recovering, while the price side is under pressure.In 2025H1,thespecialty gasindustry has shown a significant characteristic of "demand side recovery and price sidepressure". The sales volume of some core specialty gas products of thecompany has increasedsignificantly. However, due to further intensified price competition in the industry, product sales priceshave been affected. The downward trend in prices directly offsets the positive effect of sales growth,resulting in the overall sales revenue of the company failing to increase synchronously and insteadshowing a year-on-year decline trend. Due to the increase in some expenses in 2025H1 and the impactof exchange gains and losses, combined with the additional financial expenses incurred by thecompany's provision of convertible bond interest expenses in accordance with regulations,25H1profit isstill affected to a certain extent What’s Different ➢Accelerate domestic substitution through independent innovation.In 2025, the company will furtherconsolidate its advantages and focus on research and development of key gas products in the fields ofintegrated circuits, new energy, and healthcare. In the field of integrated circuits, the company iscommitted to providing high-quality gas products for domestic chip manufacturing enterprises throughindependent innovation, helping the industry break through technological bottlenecks and acceleratedomestic substitution. The company has 55 electronic special gas productsthat can achieve importsubstitution; Despite the development of domestic enterprises in recent years, as of 2024, overseas gasgiants still dominate the domestic specialty gas market, with the company's market share in Chinaaccounting for less than 5%. The company will accelerate the transformation of high-end electronicspecialty gas products such as silane and hydrogen bromide, accelerate the certification process, andenhance the market competitiveness and market share of the products; Actively exploring moresegmented markets, by deeply exploring market demand, accurately positioning target customer groups,establishing long-term, stable, and mutually beneficial supply cooperation relationships with customers,and further consolidating the company's leading position in the domestic market coverage. ➢The steady growth of the semiconductor industry is expected to drive the demand for electronicspecialty gases.Driven by sustained demand in fields such as AI and cloud infrastructure, WSTSpredicts that global semiconductor market sales will reachUSD700.9 billion by 2025(YoY +11.2%)andare expected to continue growing by 8.5% in 2026. Due to the continued demand for artificial intelligence(AI) semiconductors drivingwafer consumption, TECHCET's data shows that the semiconductormanufacturing materials market is expected to grow by nearly 8% year-on-year in 2025. The overallsemiconductor materials market is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6%between 2023 and2028 andexceedUSD84 billion by 2028. With the continuous advancement oftechnology and the gradual release of market demand, the semiconductor industry is expected tomaintain steady growth in the coming years, thereby driving the demand for electronic specialty gases. Action ➢Profit forecast.We give the company net profit ofRMB 212 million, RMB 242 million, and RMB 279millionfor 2025-2027, based on the valuation of comparable companies in the industry.Based on thevaluation of comparable companies in the industry,we give the company35xPE forFY26, correspondingtoTPof RMB70.35.We initiate with“Accumulate" rating. Risks The risks of market price competition, unexpected demand for specialty gases, and tariff wars. 分析师介绍 分析师庄怀超,本科毕业于北京航空航天大学,硕士毕业于香港大学金融学专业,主要覆盖化工和新材料行业。 该分析师2022-2024年曾任职于海通国际研究部,团队2022年获得过亚洲货币材料组第一名,该分析师2025年加入环球富盛理财有限公司,继续覆盖化工和新材料行业。环球富盛理财有限公司是一家香港的持牌券商