业绩及销量承压，布局和销售国际化

业绩及销量承压，布局和销售国际化 Performance and sales under pressure& Layout and sales internationalized 最新动态 ➢25H1业绩及销量承压。2025H1，公司完成轮胎产量1556.95万条，同比减少3.21%);其中，半钢轮胎产量1504.05万条，同比减少3.56%);全钢轮胎产量52.9万条，同比增长7.72%。公司完成轮胎销售1487.03万条，同比减少1.5%);其中，半钢轮胎销量1437.03万条，同比减少1.65%);全钢轮胎销量50万条，同比增长3.11%。25H1，公司实现营业收入41.19亿元，同比增长0.24%);实现归母净利润6.72亿元，同比减少37.64%);实现扣非净利润6.67亿元，同比减少36.98%。 动向解读 ➢布局全球化。全球化布局可以有效规避贸易壁垒、整合生产要素、降低运输成本、提升技术水平。公司泰国二期“森麒麟轮胎（泰国）有限公司年产600万条高性能半钢子午线轮胎及200万条高性能全钢子午线轮胎扩建项目”已于2023年大规模投产运行；公司“森麒麟（摩洛哥）年产1200万条高性能轿车、轻卡子午线轮胎项目”2025年将实现大规模投产放量。森麒麟的中国、泰国、摩洛哥全球产能“黄金三角”布局为公司参与全球化竞争提供了坚强的后盾。 ➢销售国际化。公司拥有完善的境外替换市场销售体系，海外市场覆盖美洲、欧洲、亚太及非洲等区域，产品远销150多个国家和地区。2024年公司旗下“森麒麟Sentury”“路航Landsail”“德林特Delinte”三大品牌合计在美国速度级别H级、V级两类高端、高性能轮胎市场分别占有4.5%、3%的市场份额，在中国轮胎品牌中排名第一，显示出公司在美国高端轮胎市场的强劲竞争力和影响力。2024年，公司轮胎产品在美国替换市场的占有率超5%、在欧洲替换市场的占有率超4%。 策略建议 ➢盈利预测。我们预测公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别18.87、22.94和24.31亿元。公司定位高端给予一定估值溢价，给予公司26年11倍PE，给予目标价23.32元，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 风险提示 关税战的风险、贸易壁垒的风险、宏观经济波动的风险。 What’s New ➢In25H1,performance and salesvolumeare under pressure.In 25H1, thecompany completed a tireproduction of 15.5695 million pieces(YoY-3.21%);Among them, the production of semi steel tires was15.0405 million(YoY-3.56%);The production of all steel tires was 529000(YoY +7.72%). Completedsalesvolumeof 14.8703 million tires(YoY-1.5%);Among them, the sales volume of semi steel tires was14.3703 million(YoY-1.65%);Thesalesvolumeof all steel tires reached 500000 units(YoY +3.11%.Achieved operating revenue of 4.119 billion yuan(YoY +0.24%);Realizenet profitof 672 million yuan(YoY-37.64%);Realizerecurringnet profit of 667 million yuan(YoY-36.98%). What’s Different ➢Layout globalization.Globalization layout can effectively avoid trade barriers, integrate productionfactors, reduce transportation costs, and improve technological level. The expansion project ofSenturyTire (Thailand) Co., Ltd.'s second phase in Thailand, with an annual production capacity of 6 million high-performance semi steel radial tires and 2 million high-performance all steel radial tires, has been put intolarge-scale operation in 2023; The company's "Sentury(Morocco) Annual Production of 12 Million HighPerformance Passenger Car and Light Truck Radial Tires Project" will achieve large-scale productionand volume increase by 2025.Sentury's global production capacity "Golden Triangle" layout in China,Thailand, and Morocco provides a strong backing for the company to participate in global competition. ➢Internationalizationof sales.The company has a comprehensive sales system for overseasreplacement markets, covering regions such as the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, and Africa. Itsproducts are exported to more than 150 countries and regions. In 2024, the company's three majorbrands, Sentury, Landsail, and Delinte, together hold a market share of 4.5% and 3% respectively in thehigh-end and high-performance tire markets of the H-class and V-class in the United States, ranking firstamong Chinese tirebrands, demonstrating the company's strong competitiveness and influence in thehigh-end tire market in the United States. In 2024, the company's tire products will have a market shareof over 5% in the replacement market in the United States and over 4%in the replacement market inEurope. Action ➢Profit forecast.We predict that the company's net profit attributable from 2025 to 2027 will be RMB1.887 billion, RMB 2.294 billion, and RMB 2.431 billion, respectively. The company is positioned as high-end and is given a certain valuation premium.Wegive thecompany11xPE forFY26andTPof 23.32yuan. For theintialcoverage,“BUY”rating will be given. Risks The risks of tariff wars, trade barriers, and macroeconomic fluctuations. 分析师介绍 分析师庄怀超，本科毕业于北京航空航天大学，硕士毕业于香港大学金融学专业，主要覆盖化工和新材料行业。 该分析师2022-2024年曾任职于海通国际研究部，团队2022年获得过亚洲货币第一名，该分析师2025年加入环球富盛理财有限公司，继续覆盖化工和新材料行业。环球富盛理财有限公司是一家香港的持牌券商机构，成立于2014年。 该分析师曾在wind发布报告超过500篇，主要覆盖行业包括化肥、农药、气体、炸药、氟化工、分子筛、电解液和合成生物学等行业。覆盖的公司包括：东岳集团、环球新材国际、中国心连心化肥、中化化肥、阜丰集团、中国三江化工、中国联塑、浦林成山、米高集团、中国石油化学、中国旭阳集团、彩客新能源、天德化工、理文化工等。 微信：zhuangcharles邮箱：charles.zhuang@gpf.com.hk电话：(852)97487114; (86) 188 01353 3537 The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon: 6 to 18 months SECTOR RATING DEFINITIONThe Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization ofthe issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4)Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not had investment banking relationships with the issuermentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries are no