日内瓦28：地缘政治紧张局势和国际分裂：证据和影响

Anusha Chari, Nathan Converse, Arnaud Mehl,GianMaria Milesi-Ferretti, and Isabel Vansteenkiste GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONSAND INTERNATIONALFINANCIAL FRAGMENTATIONEVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS ICMBINTERNATIONAL CENTERFOR MONETARYAND BANKING STUDIESCIMBCENTRE INTERNATIONALD’ETUDES MONETAIRESET BANCAIRES GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS ANDINTERNATIONAL FINANCIALFRAGMENTATION EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS Geneva Reports on the World Economy 28 INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR MONETARY AND BANKING STUDIES (ICMB) International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies2, Chemin Eugène-Rigot1202 GenevaSwitzerland Tel: (41 22) 734 9548Fax: (41 22) 733 3853Web: www.icmb.ch © 2025 International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH Centre for Economic Policy Research187 boulevard Saint-Germain, 1er étage75007 ParisFrance 2 Coldbath SquareLondon EC1R 5HLUK Tel: +44 (20) 7183 8801Fax: +44 (20) 7183 8820Email: cepr@cepr.orgWeb: www.cepr.org ISBN: 978-1-912179-97-8 GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS ANDINTERNATIONAL FINANCIALFRAGMENTATIONEVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS Geneva Reports on the World Economy 28 Anusha ChariUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, NBER and CEPR Nathan ConverseFederal Reserve Board Arnaud MehlEuropean Central Bank and CEPR Gian Maria Milesi-FerrettiHutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, The Brookings Institution and CEPR Isabel VansteenkisteEuropean Central Bank and CEPR THE INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR MONETARY AND BANKING STUDIES(ICMB) The International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB) was created in1973 as an independent, non-profit foundation. It is associated with Geneva’s GraduateInstitute of International and Development Studies. Its aim is to foster exchanges ofviews between the financial sector, central banks and academics on issues of commoninterest. It is financed through grants from banks, financial institutions and centralbanks. The Center sponsors international conferences, public lectures, original researchand publications. In association with CEPR, the Center has published the GenevaReports on the World Economy since 1999. These reports attract considerable interestamong practitioners, policymakers and scholars. ICMB is non-partisan and does not take any view on policy. Its publications, including thepresent report, reflect the opinions of the authors, not of ICMB or any of its sponsoringinstitutions. The President of the Foundation Board is Martin Schlegel and the Directoris Ugo Panizza. CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH (CEPR) The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) is a network of almost 1,900 researcheconomists based mostly in European universities. The Centre’s goal is twofold: topromote world-class research, and to get the policy-relevant results into the handsof key decision-makers. CEPR’s guiding principle is ‘Research excellence with policyrelevance’. It was founded in the UK in 1983, where it is a Charity, and in November 2019CEPR initiated the creation of an Association under French law, in order to provide avehicle for an expansion in France. The members of the Conseil d’Administration of theAssociation are identical to the UK Board of Trustees. CEPR is independent of all public and private interest groups. It takes no institutionalstand on economic policy matters and its core funding comes from its InstitutionalMembers, projects that it runs and sales of publications. Because it draws on such a largenetwork of researchers, its output reflects a broad spectrum of individual viewpointsas well as perspectives drawn from civil society. CEPR research may include views onpolicy, but the Trustees/members of the Conseil d’Administration of the Association donot give prior review to its publications. The opinions expressed in this report are thoseof the authors and not those of CEPR. Sir Charlie BeanRichard PortesBeatrice Weder di MauroMaristella BotticiniAntonio FatásUgo PanizzaHélène ReyTessa Ogden Chair of the BoardFounder and Honorary PresidentPresidentVice Presidents Chief Executive Officer About the authors Anusha Chariis Professor of Economics and Finance at the University of North Carolinaat Chapel Hill, a Research Associate in the National Bureau of Economic Research’sInternational Finance and Macroeconomics Program, a CEPR Research Fellow, and avisiting fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution. She is an associate editor for theJournalof Economic Perspectives, theJournal of International Economics, and theOxfordEconomic Papers. In 2024, she served on the President’s Council of Economic Advisers.From 2022 to 2024, she chaired the American Economic Association’s Committee onthe Status of Women in the Economics Profession, following her tenure as associatechair for mentoring. Professor Chari has held faculty positions at the University ofChicago Booth School of Business, Harvard University, the University of Michigan,UC Berkeley’s Haas School, and was the inaugural director of UNC’s Modern IndianStudies Initiative. She pr