需求难挑大梁，区间运行或是常态

2025年10月17日 需求难挑大梁，区间运行或是常态 观点摘要： [table_research]分析师：王江楠从业资格证号：F03108382投资咨询证号：Z0021543宏源期货研究所TEL：010-82295006Email：wangjiangnan@swhysc.com ➢后市展望：PX方面，四季度供应缓步增长至年内高位，供应压力同样较强。仅依靠聚酯目前的需求量很难完全消化后期的PX供应。不过目前新投PTA装置还是构筑了市场的需求底部，托底PX价格，下行空间也有限。所以总得来看，在供应端整体预期偏空的情况下，PX的进一步上涨还需要聚酯侧的进一步走强，否则压力将逐渐显现。PTA方面，PTA在成本端PX价格走弱及原油走弱的拖累下，继续在低位震荡，加工费也持续处于200元/吨以内的偏低水平。市场核心矛盾从“强成本与弱需求”的僵持转向“成本支撑走弱与内需外贸双弱”的深度博弈。尽管“旺季”已至，但终端织造、加弹环节订单恢复速度不及预期，需求无法带来利好。部分PTA企业新增了10-11月的检修计划，短期利好市场心态，长期依旧是成本定价逻辑。MEG方面，乙二醇在远月供应过剩，新装置裕龙石化开车相对顺利背景下，价格重心将继续下行。10月转为累库格局，11-12月累库明显。市场节前补货力度不是很好，市场心态谨慎偏空。但由于港口库存仍维持低位，现货流动性偏紧。裕龙石化、宁夏畅亿、巴斯夫等新装置投产也将带动乙二醇月产量提升至200万吨关口，在2025年年末、2026年年初供需差可能由负转正，行业逐步进入累库周期。 风险提示：美国对中国转出口的政策打压、地缘风险再生变动 目录 （一）行情回顾：区间震荡是常态.......................................................................................................................................5（二）开工攀升至年内高位...................................................................................................................................................6（三）效益一季度低迷，二季度好转.................................................................................................................................10（四）供需宽松转向，库存开始累积.................................................................................................................................10 二、PTA.....................................................................................................................................................................11 （一）行情回顾：跟随成本运行.........................................................................................................................................11（二）持续低迷的加工费.....................................................................................................................................................12（三）库存稳定减少.............................................................................................................................................................14（四）出口环比大幅下跌.....................................................................................................................................................14 （一）行情回顾：供需双弱下的行情.................................................................................................................................15（二）开工上升导致利润收窄.............................................................................................................................................15（三）社库库存处于历史低位.............................................................................................................................................17（四）乙二醇进口表现稳定.................................................................................................................................................18 （一）行情回顾：旺季没有突出表现.................................................................................................................................19（二）旺季表现平淡.............................................................................................................................................................19（三）旺季库存上升.............................................................................................................................................................22（四）聚酯出口增长分化.....................................................................................................................................................23 五、纺服消费.................................................................................................................................................................25 （一）坯布涨价困难重重.....................................................................................................................................................25（二）出口无法为需求提供稳定支撑.................................................................................................................................26 图表目录 图1：国际原油期货价格走势（美元/桶）·····························································································································5图2：聚酯上游原料价格走势（美元/吨）·····························································································································5图3：PX与原油价格走势（美元/桶，美元/吨）·················································································································5图4：PXCFR中国现货价格变化（美元/吨）······················································································································5图5：PX期货行情（手，元/吨）··········································································································································6图6：PX基差走势（元/吨）·················································································································································6图7：PX国内开工率（%）·····················································································································································6图8：PX月度产量（千吨）··························································