专注高端商场，引领重奢消费

港股通（沪、深） 公司评级增持（首次） 专注高端商场，引领重奢消费 报告日期2025年10月19日 投资要点： ⚫专注高端商场，占据核心商圈：截至2025H1，公司在内地9个核心城市拥有10个高端商场，公司超前布局，占据核心位置和商圈，通过多年的运营和不断迭代更新，成为当地的标杆商场，尤其上海恒隆广场，经过20多年的经营，成为上海标杆重奢商场。 ⚫核心项目租金收入止跌回正：公司于内地的核心项目上海恒隆广场和上海港汇恒隆贡献内地零售业态物业租赁收入的50%以上，2025H1上海恒隆广场和上海港汇恒隆广场实现租金收入同比增速由负转正。我们认为随着核心项目经营表现趋于稳定，叠加2025下半年杭州恒隆广场写字楼开业带来部分增量租金，2025年公司整体物业租赁收入同比降幅有望收窄。 相关研究 【兴证海外地产】恒隆地产：内地零售业态表现稳定，维持稳定派息-2025.07.31 ⚫杭州恒隆广场将为主要增量贡献：公司核心的发展中项目杭州恒隆广场计划2025下半年开业部分写字楼，截至2025H1预租率达22%；剩余写字楼和购物中心部分将于2026上半年开业，截至2025H1购物中心预租率已达77%。我们认为杭州恒隆广场将提升公司经常性收入，有利于公司稳定派息能力。 分析师：宋健S0190518010002BMV912songjian@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：孙钟涟S0190521080001请注意:孙钟涟并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管的活动。sunzhonglian@xyzq.com.cn ⚫有望恢复纯现金派息：2013~2022年期间，公司维持每股派息稳中有增且均为现金派息，2023年末期派息首次提出以股代息方案且延续至今，2024年首次每股派息同比下滑33%至0.52港元。基于公司物业租赁收入有望降幅收窄且资本开支在杭州恒隆广场完工后将大幅回落，我们认为公司有能力维持每股派息的稳定性，在杭州恒隆广场零售部分开业后，也有望恢复纯现金派息。 ⚫净负债率有望见顶回落：截至2025H1，公司净负债率为33.5%，较2024年末保持稳定。我们认为随着2026年上半年杭州恒隆广场零售部分开业，净负债率有望于2026年末实现回落。 ⚫首次覆盖，给予“增持”评级：我们预计随着杭州恒隆广场分阶段开业，公司租金收入有望实现稳中有增，资本开支和净负债率均有望自2026年起回落，派息也有望维持稳定且恢复纯现金派息。2025年10月17日收盘价对应2024/2025年股息收益率为5.9%/5.9%，给予“增持”评级。 ⚫风险提示：派息不及预期；商场零售额表现不及预期；投资物业出租率、续租租金表现不及预期。 Hang LungProperties（（00101.HK）Stock Connect (SH/SZ)Focuson High-End Shopping Malls,Leading Luxury Consumption Investment Highlights: ⚫Focus on high-end shopping malls, occupying prime locations:As of H1 2025,the company owns 10 high-end shopping malls in 9 core cities in mainland China.Through its forward-looking strategy, the company has secured prime locations andestablished these properties as local benchmarks. Notably, after over two decades ofoperation, Shanghai Plaza 66 has become a benchmark luxury shopping mall. Related Report Hang Lung Properties（00101.HK）:Stable Performance in Mainland RetailOperations,Maintains Steady DividendPayouts-2025.07.31 ⚫Rental income from core projects turns positive:The company's core projects inmainland China, Shanghai Plaza 66 and Grand Gateway 66 in Shanghai, contributeover 50% of its mainland retail property rental income. In H1 2025, theyoygrowth rateof rental income for these two properties turned positive. As the performance of coreprojects stabilizes, coupled with incremental rental income from the phased openingof Hangzhou Plaza 66's office towers in H2 2025, the decline in the company's overallproperty rental income for 2025 is expected to narrow. Analyst：Jian SongS0190518010002BMV912songjian@xyzq.com.cn ⚫Hangzhou Plaza 66 to be the major growth driver:The company's key project underdevelopment, Hangzhou Plaza 66, is expected to seepartialopening ofoffice towersinH22025, with a pre-commitment rate of 22% as of H1 2025.Remaining officeandthe shopping mall are scheduled to open in H1 2026, with the shopping mall's pre-commitment rate already reaching 77% as of H1 2025. We believe Hangzhou Plaza66 will boost the company's recurring income and support stable dividend distributioncapability. Analyst：Zhonglian SunS0190521080001Notice: Zhonglian Sun is notlicenseholders registered at the Securities andFutures Commission (SFC), and is notallowed to engage in regulated activitiesin Hong Kong.sunzhonglian@xyzq.com.cn ⚫Potential resumption of cash-only dividends:2013~2022,the companymaintainedprogressivecashdividend policy. The final dividend for 2023 introduced ascrip dividend option for the first timeThe interim dividend per share for 2024decreased by 33%yoyto HKD 0.52. Based on the expected narrowing decline inproperty rental income and a significant projected drop in capital expenditure after thecompletion of Hangzhou Plaza 66, we believe the company has the capacity tomaintain stability inDPSand potentially resume cash-only dividends. ⚫Gearing ratio expected to peak and decline:As of H1 2025, the company's netgearing ratio was 33.5%, remaining stable. We expect the gearing ratio to declinebythe end of 2026, following the opening of the retail component of Hangzhou Plaza 66in H1 2026. ⚫Initiating coveragewith“Outperform”:We anticipate that the phased opening ofHangzhouPlaza 66 will support steady growth in rental income.Both capitalexpenditure and the gearing ratio are expected to decline from 2026, and dividendsare likely to remain stable with a potential return to cash-only payments.Based on theclosing price onOctober 17, 2025, the dividend yield for 2024/2025 is5.9%/5.9%.Weinitiatecoveragewith“Outperform”. ⚫Potential risks：Lower-than-expected dividends; Lower-than-expectedretail sales;Lower-than-expectedoccupancy rate and rentalreversion. 目录 一、公司基本情况..........................................................................................5二、投资物业：核心现金牛，运营指标边际改善..........................................7三、物业销售：对报表的拖累影响逐步减少...............................................16四、财务分析：有望恢复纯现金派息..........................................................18五、盈利预测与估值....................................................................................22 图目录 图1、恒隆地产股权结构（截至2025年6月末）........................................5图2、中国香港本地股港股通持股占总股本的比例....