宏观挑战市场中的宏量营养素创新

Equity ResearchOctober 15, 2025 USA | Food Macro-Nutrient Innovation in a Macro-Challenged Market Center-store food faces multiple headwinds: pressured low-income consumers,shiftto store-perimeter,and GLP-1s.With promo effectiveness unclear,companies have spoken to boosting innovation to meet evolving consumerdemand, but results remain mixed. High-protein products are outperforming,but primary protein sources are favored over enhanced offerings in traditionallylow-protein segments, increasing uncertainty for an already clouded industryoutlook. Innovation essential for reigniting growth.Center-store U.S food manufacturers face multipleheadwindsto growth,as pressured consumers,GLP-1 adoption,SNAP reductions,and agenerational shiftin consumer behavior toward perimeter-store weigh on demand. In response,mgmt teams are focusing on price/promotion and innovation to reignite topline trajectory. Whilepromo activity is back, its ability to sustainably drive incremental volume remains unclear, meaninginnovation will be a more critical driver of topline momentum in the N-MT. For legacy center-store players, this likely means significant portfolio reshaping, as many "iconic" brands struggle toresonate with evolving consumer preferences, posing a tricky balancing act between reinvestmentin core brands and expansion into new segments. High-protein innovation driving consumer engagement.Innovation in high-protein offerings hasbecome a strategic priority as consumer preferences shift toward health and value. High-proteinitems are outperforming category peers across center store, with core formats such as nutritionbars and shakes leading volume growth. Affordable protein options like chicken continue toresonate, reinforcing protein’s role as a key purchase driver. As more companies invest in protein-forward innovation, we expect the trend to accelerate, strengthening protein’s position as adifferentiator and engagement lever. Many speaking to increased innovation, but will it be enough?Companies continue to highlightinnovation, particularly around protein, as a strategic focus.FLOemphasized the generationalshift in consumer behavior and its commitment to a differentiated portfolio, whileUTZmgmtnoted its smaller scale enables greater agility to innovate and respond to consumer demands, andmultiple companies speak to protein-specific innovation, including,GIS(Cheerios),POST(cereal),andSJM(Uncrustables). Despite these efforts, however, results remain mixed. Our analysis showsdemand for high-protein items is strong across both center store and perimeter, with core proteincategories, nutrition bars/shakes and meats, outperforming traditional center store offerings.Protein-enhanced products in historically low-protein segments are growing faster than categorypeers but remain too small to offset potentially structural weakness in legacy items, and thereare concerns these gains reflect substitution rather than incremental demand. For example, highprotein cereal grew 39% y/y L12W, but represents only ~5% of the total category, while total cerealcategory sales fell ~5% in the same period. In our view, center store food companies face a dualmandate: accelerate innovation while supporting legacy brands / items to stabilize trends untilportfolios are sufficiently evolved. These investment requirements are likely to weigh on marginsin the NT-MT. Conversely, core protein categories are delivering true incremental gains, positioningcompanies in those segments to benefit more meaningfully from rising protein demand versustraditional center store players, who must invest heavily to realign portfolios. .Source: Jefferies Research, NielsenIQ xAOC +C Scott Marks * | Equity Analyst +1 (212) 778-8007 | smarks1@jefferies.com Natasha Baker * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8278 | nbaker@jefferies.com Richard Thompson * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8918 | rthompson1@jefferies.com Summary of Changes In recent quarters, food companies have increasingly emphasized innovation as a strategic lever to counteract pressured volumes and re-engageconsumers. This shift is driven by evolving consumer preferences that balance value-seeking behavior with a desire for differentiated offerings,particularly those aligned with health and wellness trends. Retailers like Trader Joe’s andSFMexemplify this dynamic, thriving on high SKU turnover anda “treasure hunt” shopping experience that encourages trial of new and seasonal products. A standout area of innovation is high-protein items, whichhave seen accelerated growth in $ share y/y at companies such asK,POST, andGIS. These firms have not only launched new protein-rich productsbut also acknowledged the momentum behind the protein trend, underscoring its role in driving consumer engagement and portfolio differentiation. Innovation Innovation is defined as items that achieve a growth rate of 90% or more compared to year ago period (will include flavor innovation, as well as new packaging,price points, et