云半导体：在中国精明地花钱

GreaterChina SemiconductorsIAsiaPacific N3FaN"/bITY T: *N (HTI+ Daniel Yen, CFAqpey fraw Cloud Semis: Spending Smartlyin China Charlie Chan57/1-(6/27.98, Daisy Dai, CFATige traig! Despite various solutions/spending timing, China CSPs continuedto emphasize the Al investrment. Highlight is the upsice fromBABA, with monetization being a clear pcsitive. Reiterate curbullish view on cloud sermis. Dqi trie! Key Takeaways Ethan JisRtsyh.Au:sivs The big 3 China CSPs capex was Rmb62bn in 2Q25, +12% Q/Q +T70% Y/Y, vs. top4 US CSPs at +4% Q/Q, +46%; Y/Y. GREATER CHINA TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTORS The highlight is BAEA's strong capex growth amid chip supply ccnstraints;cornrientaries fram others are mixed. Asia PacitewetA Uusnpu) We believe the AI demand from Chinese enterprises is also strong; 5o GPU supplywill be cruial Local GPU servers could have higher cloud sermis content to ethanceperforranee. US demand is also strong but subject to substrate supply. We reiterate OW onAspeed and averall cloud semis. China cloud capex mixed, but still emphasizing Al investment: BABA's resultshows the most upside amang all the China CSPs. The cornpany reported 2Q25capex at Rmb38.7bn (+57% Q/Q, +224% Y/Y), and expressed that its investments inAl have begun to yield tangible results (ink). The strength is consistent vith ourcloud sermnis repart (link) that the market is underestirnating demand global.y. Onthe other hand, Tencent cuntinues to ermphasize spending smartly, and GDSrrierntioned quiet Al demand due to chip supply uricertainty (Exhibit 7). GDS mentioned customers have a nurnber of options acress bath imported andcernestic scurced chips, Considerations inc.ude performance, Lechnology, availabilityand others. We note there is 2-3x interface chip coritent (e.g, PCI-e retirner) fromlocal GPU servers (e.g., MetaX), given the requirernent of scale-up. This is a clearpesitive for cloud semis suppliers, but the tost/efficiency might be less favorable Morgan Sanley dset and genss li: cc susiness withesters shoddbe awarifal he rmrey leeacelieloci:mpsris cuetsa/r Morgin Sanley Fesear:dh, As a real.nlernsl tha cauldl af'er:l Pe ot:je:livily ol Mengan SlanleyRrssrch as uriy a singe Tacler in mskirg ei inrstnenl.Ressurch. Inetslicrs siould tr sice: Morgin S.srlkeydeustn US demand remains strong; reiterate OW on Aspeed and cloud semis: We believethat overall server deranid frorn US CSPs wilL rernain strcrig into 2H. There arecustorners trying to add more orders into the supply chain in 4Q. That said, thecomponent shortage (e.g, BT substrate) might cap the upside and push some urdersout into 1Q26. US CSPs are also trying te diversifying their interface chips supply,including Greater China vendcrs. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to ihe Disclosure Setion, located at the end ofthisreport. : sussat paeass u/eidN- Anslysts tolsd try rtn-L.S. afflistes arH res;isten:c:mmurinstens wihas.tjs:tcrrarg. pusli= prame:and t:scing geourties reld ty a nsrch anslysl atoount. Key Charts Exhibit 4: Cumulatively, the top 11 cloucl plsyers are expecte:d to spend Us$445on oncapex in 2025, up from Us$4GGbn prior to US hyperscalers esrnings, andl roughlye:juivslent to tctal claud caex in 2023 and 2024 combinec exo=eding 18%, a new all time high; this shculd be fouowed by ven higher cepitalintensity, with MSe forecsting total oloud supex will scoount for more tinan 20% ofCy26 revenue For diefailed understanding of the complexity in the AJ cloud server supply chain, p/easerefer tc otw globa/ foundation report: Globa/ Technology: Unraveling the Globai Cicud A/Supply Chain (28 Feb 2025) ValuationMethodologyandRisks Aspeed Technology (5274.TWO) Ease case, residual incpme model. Key assurnptions: Ccst of equity oF 9.8% (2.0% risk-free rate, 6% risk premium, 1.3 beta)Medium-terrn growth rate of 18.5%-Terrminal. growth rate of 5.2%Cash payout ratio ef 84% Risks to Upside Faster-than-expe:ted spec rigration Risks to Downside Softering cloud demand-:Slower-than-expected spec rmigration-Intensified cpripetitionFurther policy tightening in China Disclosure Section S.oipAs(SraCPig (gh/-tim4ln 2052RRZa:a MargenSIa-le/Asia(Singre)5nritgsPie.h:(PvgiN.triike 2C0C08434H,rPgdla:ml Iry(/ M:n,erAuchoely olSigxee (dith areots ega reyernty trv(n:ets ardshudle :car ta:de/threp*:t te aysttesisng r, orim: te(hiar vith,Mrgn Starley/erb)r Acarslix Ply Jcl(a,BN 13.039 W5 5E5, iv4:ler Arstrslie: lin404ON2) cN cgrp dsig Snn) gp- og iueku:g tFu Pap-rrs uu/4 -at. (Muo SI r, AngNke: sgfee tge: M20te uN as.o] ss:p.eUZ239CMHR6EFT:CIE305,rg.dkdliriheSnieeJF>:ure+B:ardellsdiaCSFENesdl:G :leoKa Te:A.(SER RegN/d N: N-03OCO10G,SiakRuc(5FFIStnre Pr;kr Tiegistaxtion Na IN70Gr74443g.Merha:t,Far ker (SFBI Tegis.rxticn Na INM.030T7C3) aend dep:silory 3ertiE pan: vitlh NatianslSecritirs Pepestcrylimilec/(5=F)Pegis:a.tN: N-CP-NSD:-557-707/hirgr*gslxl :u'lics1Alima,-/35 %40, P4xu>rgFu:lkrMeg, Wu-l,Mil:si4000°E,I-dx, TMrph:rea +91-22-ET181303;Co