中国半导体：受益于内存上行周期

EquitiesSemiconductors &Equipment Benefiting from memory upcycle China ◆Favourablememorymarketdynamicstoextend into 2026e◆Domestic memory suppliers’ capacity expansion benefitssupply chainparticipants◆Maintain Buy onNauraandGigadevice,andupgrade AMECto Buy from Hold; raisetarget pricesby42-94% Frank He* (Reg. No. S1700517120005)Head of A-share Technology Hardware ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedfrank.fang.he@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 21 5066 2009 Cara Su* (Reg. No. S1700525070001)Analyst, A-share IT Hardware ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedcara.z.h.su@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 21 50662080 We expect memory supply-demand disparity to sustainfor1)NAND.WithrobustinvestmentsinAI data centres,thesupply shortage of nearline HDD, as evidencedby therapid increase in the lead times from a few weeks to over 52 weeks(source:TrendForce, 15 September 2025),isleadingtorisingdeployment ofQLCeSSDsbycloud service providersfor cold data.We believe supply will remain constrainedtill2026, giventheimpact ofproduction line upgradesonbit output, as well as stringentutilisation rate control of major suppliers.2) DRAM.We think the upward pricingtrends of DDR5 will continue, mainly driven by the memory content growthin AIservers, and thesqueeze-out ofDRAM capacityas major suppliersareactivelyallocating more resources to HBM lines. Additionally, we believethe supply shortageof DDR4 will persist till 2026 withthe phase-out of majorsuppliersin DDR4amidsolid demand from conventional server platforms and specialty markets. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Domestic memory capacity expansionspeeds up.We believe the favourable pricingoutlook and the rising localisation trends are key catalysts for domestic suppliers’capacity expansion:1)YMTC’sChangcunPhase IIIIntegrated Circuit Co., Ltd.wasofficially established in September,which we believemarks the start of its next majorcapacity expansion.We estimate YMTC(not listed)currently has a monthlyNANDcapacity of 140k wafers by end-2024, and we expect ittoincreasethemonthlyoutputto190k/255k wafersin 2025-26e. Additionally, per Reuters(25 September 2025), YMTC isalso planning to enter the DRAMmarket, which may bring additional capacityexpansionin the near term.2)CXMT(not listed)is activelyexpandingits production capacity,especially for DDR5/LPDDR5and HBM.Omdiaestimates that CXMT’smonthlyDRAMcapacity was 200k wafers in the beginning of 2025, and weexpectthis figure to reach270k/330k wafersby end 2025-26.Based on the assumption thatper 10k memorycapacity expansionrequiresa capex ofUSD1.1bn,we estimate the two memory leaderswill collectively spend USD13.2bnandUSD14.9bn in 2025-26e, and domestic supplychainparticipants, especiallyequipment makers,will be themajorbeneficiaries. Maintain Buy onNauraandGigadevice,andupgrade AMEC to Buy from Hold.WebelieveNauraand AMEC should benefitfrom the rising capex of domestic memorymakers. We maintain Buy on Naura(raise TP toRMB528.40fromRMB362.15), as it iswell positioned to gain more shares with its fast-growing product coverage; we upgradeAMECto Buy from Hold(raise TP toRMB353.30fromRMB182.10), since ithas thelargest exposure to NANDproduction lines asalocal leaderin etchers, which is vital forhigh aspect ratio structures.With YMTC’s accelerated capacity expansion, our previousconcernsoverreduced domestic WFE capex are now removed.Wemaintain Buy onGigadevice(raise TP toRMB255.60fromRMB179.60), as we believe itwill benefitfromits stake in CXMT andrising DDR4 price,asone of the fewsuppliersthat canenlarge capacity in 2025-27e.Ourpecking orderisGigadevice, AMEC, andNaura.Seecompany section forvaluation and risks. HSBC Global Research Podcasts Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBCQianhai Securitiesat:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:NAURA Technology Financials & valuation:AMEC Financials & valuation:Gigadevice Semiconductor Domestic memory suppliers are speeding up their developments Current technical capabilities ofdomestic memory providers Backed by the national support and propelled by strong domestic demand,Yangtze MemoryTechnologies (YMTC)and CXMT are rapidly shrinking their technological gap with global leaders: More specifically,according to Techinsights on 24 September 2025,YMTChas realised themass production of its 267-layer3D NANDTLCproduct utilising itsproprietary Xtacking 4.0(Gen5) process. This latest iteration focuses on substantial gainsin storage density, speed,and efficiency through key technical innovations. Notable upgrades include acentredX-DEC die design to reduce wordline latency, an optimised 20-holeverticalchannel (VC)design that eliminates dummy holes for enhanced cell density, and the continued maturityofitsproprietary