担心市场？5 大风险及其对冲方法

MARKETS市场GUIDE TO WEALTH财富指南 Worried About theMarket? 5 Big Risksand How to Hedge Them. 担⼼市场？5⼤风险及其对冲⽅法。 ByMartin Baccardax作者：Martin BaccardaxFollow Oct 10, 2025, 1:00 am EDT2025年10⽉10⽇，东部夏令时凌晨1:00 Illustration by Wesley Allsbrook插图：Wesley Allsbrook Sports fans know well the feeling of cautious exuberance. It’sthe paradoxical sensation of cheering your beloved team as itpulls ahead of its rival, while growing increasingly worried that it might ultimately lose the match. 体育迷们⾮常熟悉那种谨慎的欢欣感。这是⼀种⽭盾的感觉：在为⾃⼰⼼爱的球队领先对⼿⽽欢呼的同时，⼜越来越担⼼它最终会输掉⽐赛。 As the current market rally approaches its third anniversary this month,investors know this feeling, too. They’ve celebrated as the S&P 500 notchedmore than 30 record highs this year and added more than $11 trillion in valuesince its early April swoon, even as they grow increasingly concerned about apossible crash. 随着本轮市场上涨在本⽉接近三周年，投资者也熟悉这种感觉。他们在标普500今年创下30多次历史新⾼并⾃四⽉初下跌以来市值增加超过11万亿美元时欢庆，但与此同时，他们对可能出现的崩盘越来越担忧。 The rally is becoming more difficult to believe in. Some common laments:Yes, stocks are some 85% higher from their October 2022 lows, but that isonly because the eye-watering gains of the biggest tech stocks are draggingthe market along. Sure, the rally is heading into its fourth year, but that isonly because the Federal Reserve is ignoring inflation risks and cuttinginterest rates. Yeah, the economy is remarkably resilient, but that is largelythe result of massive tax cuts and government spending that is adding billionsof dollars in new debt. 这波上涨正变得愈发难以让⼈信服。⼀些常⻅的抱怨包括：确实，股市⾃2022年10⽉的低点已上涨约85%，但那只是因为昀⼤的⼀些科技股的惊⼈涨幅在拖动整个市场。没错，这轮⾏情已进⼊第四年，但那只是因为美联储在忽视通胀⻛险并降息。是的，经济表现出惊⼈的韧性，但这在很⼤程度上是⼤规模减税和政府⽀出导致的新债务增加数⼗亿美元的结果。 So far, bearish investors have lost out. But at this toppy moment, consideringstrategies that can protect against worst-case scenarios makes sense—in partbecause they can help you stay in the game. Here are five of the market’sbiggest fears heading into the final months of the year, and tactics for each one that can protect your portfolio. 到⽬前为⽌，看跌的投资者已经损失惨重。但在这⼀⾼点时刻，考虑可以防范昀坏情景的策略是有意义的——部分原因是它们可以帮助你继续留在市场中。以下是在年底昀后⼏个⽉市场⾯临的五⼤恐惧，以及针对每⼀种恐惧可以保护你投资组合的策略。 Fear No. 1: The U.S. Deficit Will Spark a Bond Market Blow-Up 恐惧⼀：美国⾚字将引发债券市场爆发 With the overall U.S. debt level topping $37 trillion, the highest on record,and careening at a pace that will take it to $50 trillion by the middle of thenext decade, investors are starting to question whether dictum meum pactum(“my word is my bond”) is truly the case when it comes to U.S. Treasurybonds. 随着美国总体债务⽔平突破37万亿美元，创历史新⾼，并以这样的速度膨胀，预计到下⼀个⼗年中期将达到50万亿美元，投资者开始质疑dictummeum pactum（“我的话就是我的债”）在美国国债上的适⽤性。 If investors demand a higher return for holding longer-dated bonds, that willmean higher borrowing costs for the government and falling prices on alreadyissued bonds, because bond prices move inversely to rates. 如果投资者要求更⾼的回报来持有更⻓期限的债券，这将意味着政府的借贷成本上升，已发⾏债券的价格下跌，因为债券价格与利率呈反向变动。 Foreign investors and central banks are attempting to wean themselves offtheir reliance on U.S. Treasuries. They’re buying gold and debt issued byother highly rated nations, and they are rerouting payments in the globaltrading system to avoid getting paid in dollars. 外国投资者和中央银⾏正试图摆脱对美国国债的依赖。他们在购买⻩⾦和其他⾼评级国家发⾏的债务，并在全球贸易体系中重新安排付款，以避免以美元结算。 What to buy if you’re worried如果你感到担忧，应该买什么 Corporate debt, especially paper issued by the strongest U.S. companies,offers an interesting alternative to government bonds. Apple, for example,carries a triple-A credit rating from both Moody’s Investors Service and S&PGlobal. It generates nearly $100 billion in free cash flow each year and, unlikeits megacap tech peers, isn’t spending like an inebriated sailor on artificialintelligence. Its five-year bonds pay a fatter yield than comparable U.S.Treasuries, while offering what is effectively a risk-free return that is aroundhalf a percentage point higher. 公司债，尤其是由美国昀强公司发⾏的债券，提供了⼀个有趣的政府债替代选择。例如，Apple同时获得了Moody’s Investors Service和S&P Global的AAA级信⽤评级。它每年产⽣近1000亿美元的⾃由现⾦流，并且与其⼤型科技同⾏不同，尚未在⼈⼯智能上⼤⼿⼤脚地挥霍。其五年期债券的收益率⾼于可⽐的美国国债，同时提供了实际相当于⽆⻛险回报的收益，约⾼出半个百分点。 How to ease your fears如何缓解你的担忧 Keep in mind that a bond market collapse, while not impossible, isn’t likely.Cool heads would do everything possible to avert a U.S. government default,and it would take a lot for foreign borrowers to dump Treasuries en masse. 请记住，债券市场崩溃虽然不是不可能，但不太可能。冷静的决策者会尽⼀切可能避免美国政府违约，⽽外国借款⼈要⼤规模抛售国债也需要很⼤的动机。 READ MORE GUIDE TO WEALTH阅读全⽂财富指南 • A Vanguard Pro Explains How Your Emotions Can Throw Off YourInvesting Game•⼀位Vanguard专家解释情绪如何扰乱你的投资表现 • How One Investor Came Back After Losing a Fortune •⼀位投资者在失去⼀⼤笔财富后如何东⼭再起 • When Wealth Triggers Worry: Advisors Explain Clients’ Biggest FinancialFears•财富引发焦虑时：顾问们解释客户昀担⼼的财务问题 Recent political theater over the debt ceiling aside, there’s no reason theTreasury wouldn’t be able to make a payment. As Neil Shearing, group chiefeconomist at Capital Economics, puts it: “There are no magic thresholds foreither public debt or budget deficits beyond which fiscal crises becomein