美国移民：人才流动聚焦H-1B签证

Talent on the move: H-1Bs in focus 2024 was a record year for skilled immigration into the US,but the trend is reversing. New H-1Bs in 2025 are down byc.25%, and OPTs for international students have declined by10%. Proposed policy changes could cut volumes by another30%, with smaller firms likely to experience the biggestshift. Thematic FICC Research Zornitsa Todorova(i)+44 (0) 20 3134 4561zornitsa.todorova@barclays.comBarclays, UK Carlos Eduardo Garcia Martinez(i)+1 212 523 7426carlosed.garciamartinez@barclays.comBCI, US •Skilled immigration in the US – especially the H-1B program – has been in the spotlightthis week.Two major policyshiftsare on the table: a proposed $100k petition fee for H-1Bsand a move from the current lottery system to a wage-based selection system. Both changescould materiallyaffectfuture H-1B flows. •To track trends in skilled immigration, we launched the Barclays Skilled ImmigrationTracker – a new dataset measuring net flows of skilled immigrant workers (with at leasta bachelor’s degree) into the US labor force since 2004.The tracker covers three key entryroutes: OPTs for students; H-1B visas; and green cards, and presents data at the fiscal year(FY) level. •Using this data, we find that skilled immigration added a record 200k new workers to the USeconomy in FY 2024 –the highest since 2004.However, the latest data just released showsthe momentum appears to be reversing. •Our analysis indicates that new H-1Bs in FY 2025 are running roughly 25% below FY 2024levels.We estimate around 104k new H-1Bs or 42k net, adjusting for changes of priorimmigration status and departures. While big tech firms appear largelyunaffected,thedecline is more pronounced among outsourcing firms, consultancies and institutions inresearch and education. •Similarly, OPTs, which allow international students to work in the USaftergraduation,are running 10% lower according to the latest data in our tracker,adding momentum tothe skilled immigration decline in 2025. •The proposed $100k H-1B fee andshiftto a wage-based selection could face legal challengesand may not be implemented.However, if enacted, our analysis suggests that combinedthey could drive new H-1B volumes down by at least 30% – on top of the declines alreadyunderway – with small firms likely to see the most pronounced change.Thisshiftwillhave implications for labor supply, innovation and workforce strategies, particularly in tech,pharma and healthcare. This is a Special Report that is not an equity or a debt research report under U.S. FINRA Rules2241-2242. A turning point for skilled immigration Skilled immigration in the US reached record levels in FY 2024, adding 200k foreignworkers to the US labor forcemainly through three key immigration channels: OPT forinternational students, H-1B visas and employment-based green cards. We uncovered this surgeusing our newBarclays Skilled Immigration Tracker,a database that monitors annual flowsby skilled entry channel at both aggregate and company levels, net of departures, renewals,and status transitions through FY 2024. By tracking these net flows, we highlight the economic contribution of skilled immigrants, whoplay a key role in supporting labor markets and contributing to innovation andentrepreneurship in sectors such as tech, finance, and pharma. Since our last report,the US administration has introduced two notable proposals relatedto the H-1B visa, both aimed at revising the selection process for new applicants. In parallel,newly released datathrough June 2025 allows us to estimate current FY 2025 skilledimmigration trends with greater clarity. In light of these recent developments, this reportprovides an updated view of H-1B activity in FY 2025 and assesses how proposed H-1B policychanges, if implemented, could influence the broader skilled immigration landscape. Our focus is on H-1B visas. These visas allow US companies to sponsor foreign professionals inspecialty occupations. Each year, Congress caps new H-1B enrollments at 65,000 regular visasplus 20,000 for those with US advanced degrees. Because demand usually exceeds this cap, newbeneficiaries are selected by lottery. However, universities and certain research institutions areexempt from the H-1B cap and can hire without entering the lottery.Two policy changes arecurrently under consideration that couldaffectthe initial H-1B selection process,butpreliminary FY 2025 datasuggesta decline in skilled immigration may already be underway. Two proposed changes for H-1Bs •Introducing a $100k fee for new visas. This policy change is outlined in a proposal signedby President Trump on September 19, 2025. The proposal states employers must pay a one-time $100k fee prior to filing an H-1B petition for workers currently outside the US, a newcondition for entry.1For cap-subject H-1Bs, the fee is due onlyafterlottery selection, whenthe petition is actually filed. Notably, the order applies only to new petitions filed on orafterSeptember 21 and d