全球展望：罗夏测试

Rorschach test We believe the AI revolution, Fed cuts and fadingtariffuncertainty will all support growth. Global equities look set tooutperform core fixed income for another quarter. Ajay Rajadhyaksha(i)+1 212 412 7669ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.comBCI, US Foreword Macro Outlook The global economy is a study in contrasts right now: weak US job creation and poor China dataare beingoffsetby AI spend and the prospect of further Fed cuts. We feel the positives outweighthe headwinds; the expansion remains on track. Investment Outlook We maintain a risk-positive stance, favoring global equities over core fixed income. US equitiesshould outperform Europe for the rest of the year; we think the AI rally has room to run. We also Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 79. FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 79. FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 81. Completed: 24-Sep-25, 22:18 GMTReleased: 25-Sep-25, 04:00 GMTRestricted - External favor long US duration over Europe and Japan and tactical steepening trades in Europe andJapan. Summary of Asset Allocation Themes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Fed Independence Under pressure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 The Fed's independence may be more in question than at any time since the early 1970s. Wediscuss scenarios in which the administration could gain more influence over the Fed, as well asmarket implications. US dollar The feeble bear. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Extraordinarily bearish events for the dollar have taken place over the past couple of months.But the dollar has failed to weaken meaningfully. We argue that there is more to this resiliencethan meets the eye and that if SCOTUS rules in favour of Cook, the dollar could be bottoming. Equity Strategy Lost My Chain-of-Thought: Could the AI narrative stumble?. . . . . . . . . . 50 We remain constructive on AI as an investment theme, but explore some 'what-ifs' for datacenter capex downside. For the S&P 500, EPS at risk is relatively small, but valuations are morevulnerable. Macro read-through should not be underestimated. We highlight a few hedgingopportunities. Appendix Global forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Updated forecasts for global bond yields, WTI, Brent, global equity indices, select FX/EMcurrency pairs and key economic forecasts, including GDP, inflation, debt and interest rates. Foreword Rorschach test US job creation has slowed sharply and Q3 China data areweak. But Fed cuts and the AI theme are a powerful one-twocombo that should allow global equities to outperform corefixed income yet again in Q4. Ajay Rajadhyaksha+1 212 412 7669ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.comBCI, US Listen Heading into Q4, the global economy resembles a Rorschach Test. There’s something foreveryone, withdifferentinvestors drawingdifferentconclusions from the same data. Bond bullspoint to signs that US job creation has slowed to a crawl. Equity investors are pushing indices tonew highs, cheered by the prospect of quicker Fed cuts and a healthy earnings backdrop. In thedistant background, goods prices are now showing theeffectoftariffs,but no one seems terriblyworried about long-run inflation. Is this a stable equilibrium? In particular, can the US slow ‘just enough’ to get the Fed into playwithout material economic damage? As we stare earnestly into our own inkblots, we think theanswer is yes. There is no question that the ‘old economy’ in the world’s two largest economies has beenmixed at best. China’s property sector has still not stabilized. Export growth has slowedafterastrong H1. Domestic demand is weak. US housing activity has struggled as well, for severalquarters. The jobless rate is on the riseafterbeing stable for a year. Earlier this month, the BLSadmitted that the US created far fewer jobs since March 2024 than initially thought. On the other hand, China’s anti-involution campaign isof