中国经济：出口韧性增强中国在贸易战中的地位

Export resiliencestrengthensChina’s positionin trade war Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk China’s export growth beat expectations as exports to Africa, Latin America andtheEU picked up. Exports of integrated circuits and ships remained robust, whilepersonal consumption goods including vehicles, tech products, garments andproperty-related goods remained subdued. Imports rebounded across the board,especially in processing trade. China's tighteningcontrolonrare earth exportis acountermeasure to the US's escalation of semiconductor export restrictions. TheWhite House has intensified export curbs and sanctions against China over thepast two months, likely aiming to gainbargaining leverage in a potential Trump-Xi meeting during the APEC summit at the end of October. Trade tensions mayinitially intensify over the next two weeks before potentially easing following thepossible Trump-Xi encounter.As China’s export has been more resilient thanexpected, we revise our forecast for the export growth for 2025from3% to 4.5%.We maintain our forecast for the 2025 import growth at 1.5%. USD/RMBratesmay appreciate from the current 7.13 to 7.1 by year end and7.05 by end of 2026. Bingnan YE, Ph.D(852) 3761 8967yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk Exportsrebounded as exports to Africa, Latin America andtheEUpicked up.Exports bounced up to 8.3%(all on a YoY basis unlessspecified) inSepfrom 4.4% in Aug,beatingmarket expectationof5.7%.Exports to the USremained in deep contraction at-27% in Sep comparedto-33.1% in Aug. Conversely, shipments to Africa notably accelerated to56.4% in Sep from 25.9%, notablypickingup since the tariff war. Exports toASEAN moderated to 15.6% in Sep from 22.5%, whiletheEU and LatinAmerica accelerated to 14.2% and 15.2% from 10.4% and-2.3%. Since thetariff shocks, the exports to ASEAN and Africa surged from 7.8% and 10.8%in 1Q25 to 18.2% and 41.4% respectively in 3Q25.The increase ofshipments has made up forover 120% of the export losses to the US sinceApr, pointing to potential rerouting of exports in reaction to tariffs. Exports toKorea, India andtheUK rebounded, while Russia, Japan and Canadadeclined. Trade surplus narrowed toUS$91bnin SepfromUS$102.3bn. Source: Wind, CMBIGM Source: Wind, CMBIGM Circuits and ships remained robust while personal consumptiongoods moderated.The two major drivers in exports, tech products andtransport equipment, saw increasing divergence since the tariff shocks.Integrated circuits and shipsextended their rally in Sep, rising 32.7% and42.7%respectively, while personal consumption goods including vehicles,computers and cellphoneseased to 10.9%,-0.3% and-1.9%.Low value-added exports including textile yam, travel goods & bags, garment and toyssaw the biggest hit from tariff and declined further, as well as the housing-related products includinglamps & lighting products and home appliances.Rare earth exports notably rebounded to 97.1% in Sep from 34.7%, eventhough China has imposed additional export controls. Imports rebounded across the board.China’s imports of goodsincreasedto 7.4% in Sep from 1.3%in Aug,beating themarket expectationsof 1.4%.Imports fromtheUSsteadiedat-16%.Import value of processing tradeaccelerated to 22% in Sep from 11.2%.For energy products, import volumeofcrude oil rose by 3.9% in Sep,while coal and natural gas dropped 3.3%and 7.9%.For raw materials, volume of iron ore surged 11.7%in Sepfrom3.8%,while copper ore moderated to 6% from 7.4%. Steel products, plasticsand machine toolsrebounded in imports volume, possibly indicating therecovering industrial activities in China. Import volume of crops notablypicked up as grainsand soybeansrose to 12% and 13.2% in Sep, assoybean imports volume fromtheUS rebounded from-11.5% in Aug to12.3% in Sep. Imports volume of beauty cosmetics remained robust in 2025 after 3 years of contraction, with 10.7% growth in Sepalthoughits importpricesdroppednotably, reflecting the tepid recovery of consumer demand. Sino-US trade tensionsmayinitially intensify before easing after thepossible Trump-Xi meeting.China's tighteningcontrol onrare earth exportisa countermeasure to the US's escalation of semiconductor exportrestrictions. The White House has intensified export curbs and sanctionsagainst China over the past two months, likely aiming to gain bargainingleverageina potential Trump-Xi meeting during the APEC summitattheend of October.President Trump has threatened 100% tariff on all Chinesegoods, yet the effective date-deliberately set for1Nov, just one day after apotential Xi-Trump meetingwhichappearsto bestrategically timed. Wereckon the recent export controls on key sectors as well as Trump’s tariffthreat were tactical moves aimed atstrengthening bargaining leverageahead of the meeting, which we still expect to take place during the APECsummit.As China’s export has been more resilient than expected, we reviseour forecast for the 2025 export growthfrom 3% to 4.5%.We maintain theforecastfor the 2025 import growth at 1.5%.