一种新的华尔街交易正在推动黄金并打击货币

The latest news & analysis最新新闻与分析 This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law.For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. MARKETS & FINANCECOMMODITIES & FUTURES A New Wall Street Trade Is PoweringGold and Hitting Currencies⼀种新的华尔街交易正在推动黄⾦并打击货币 Investors are pouring money into dollar alternatives like bitcoin andprecious metals投资者正在把资⾦投⼊⽐特币和贵⾦属等美元替代资产 ByDavid Uberti Follow andJack Pitcher作者：David Uberti与Jack PitcherFollow Oct. 7, 2025 9:00 pmET Most-actively-traded gold futures topped $4,000 a troy ounce for the first time on Tuesday.PHOTO:BRENDON THORNE/BLOOMBERG NEWS 周⼆，成交最活跃的⻩⾦期货价格⾸次突破每⾦衡盎司4,000美元。图⽚来源：Brendon Thorne/Bloomberg News Investors worried about the future of the dollar and other major currencies are pilinginto gold, bitcoin and other alternative assets, powering what has become known on Wall Street as the debasement trade. 对美元及其他主要货币未来感到担忧的投资者纷纷买⼊黄⾦、⽐特币及其他替代资产，推动了华尔街称之为“贬值交易”的现象。 Traders have snapped up gold since Federal Reserve ChairJerome Powellsignaled inAugust that the central bank would begin cutting interest rates despite lowunemployment and above-target inflation, pushing prices to records. Most-actively-traded gold futures on Tuesdaysurpassed $4,000 a troy ouncefor thefirst time. ⾃从美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在⼋⽉表⽰央⾏将开始降息，尽管失业率低且通胀⾼于⽬标，交易员便抢购黄⾦，推动⾦价创下纪录。周⼆交易最活跃的黄⾦期货⾸次突破每⾦衡盎司4,000美元。 The gold rally of 2025 is unusual in that it hasn’t been fueled by afinancial meltdown.A 52% gain in futures this year is on track to outpace similar surges during thefirstyear of the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2007-09 recession,trailing only theinflationary shockin 1979. 2025年的黄⾦⾏情不同寻常，并⾮由⾦融崩溃推动。今年期货上涨52%，有望超过疫情初年和2007–2009年衰退第⼀年类似的涨幅，仅次于1979年的通胀冲击。 These days, investors are pouring money into precious metals such as gold andcryptocurrencies like bitcoin at the same time PresidentTrumphas pledged to juicethe economy through tax cuts and traders have pushed stocks to records with a fervorfor all things artificial-intelligence. 如今，投资者正在将资⾦投⼊黄⾦等贵⾦属和⽐特币等加密货币，与此同时，特朗普总统承诺通过减税刺激经济，交易员对⼀切与⼈⼯智能相关的事物抱以狂热，推动股市屡创新⾼。 As investors makeincreasingly speculative betsthat the boom will continue, they arealso looking for ways to shield themselves from potential fallout of U.S. policydysfunction, including widening budget deficits and the current governmentshutdown. That is pushing them into assets not denominated in dollars. 随着投资者越发进⾏投机性押注，期望繁荣将持续，他们也在寻找⽅法以规避美国政策功能失调可能带来的后果，包括不断扩⼤的预算⾚字和⽬前的政府停摆。这促使他们转向以⾮美元计价的资产。 Wall Street has pointed to this move as evidence that ballooning debt anduncomfortably high inflation are disrupting the outlook for currencies underpinning the globalfinancial system. 华尔街指出，这⼀举动表明，激增的债务和令⼈不安的⾼通胀正在扰乱⽀撑全球⾦融体系的货币前景。 “We’re seeing a tug of war,” saidJoe Davis, chief economist at Vanguard Group.“You’ve got the S&P 500 pricing in an AI supernova, and you’ve got the gold campsaying ‘We’re going to have structural deficits, we havefiscal pressure in the U.S., andI need to manage that risk.’ ” “我们正在看到⼀场拉锯战，”先锋集团⾸席经济学家乔·戴维斯说。“标普500正在定价⼀种AI超新星，⽽黄⾦阵营则在说‘我们将⾯临结构性⾚字，美国⾯临财政压⼒，我需要管理这种风险。’” Gold prices have risen for years, thanksto central banks the world overhoovering up bullion, a trend thataccelerated after Western countries’unprecedented sanctions on Russiaover its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Thathelped gold this yearovertake the euroas the second-largest reserve asset. 多年来⾦价⼀路上涨，得益于全球央⾏⼤量囤积黄⾦，这⼀趋势在西⽅国家因俄罗斯2022年⼊侵乌克兰⽽对其实施前所未有制裁后加速。这也帮助黄⾦今年超过欧元，成为第⼆⼤储备资产。 Trump’s promise to upend the globaltrading system in 2025 addedmomentum by pushing the U.S. dollarby one measure toits weakestfirst halfin more thanfive decades. 特朗普承诺在2025年颠覆全球贸易体系，这⼀举措进⼀步推动美元（按⼀种衡量⽅法）创下五⼗多年来最弱的上半年表现。 The dollar’s value has since stabilized. So did gold’s—until just after Powell’s speechin August. 美元的价值⾃那时起已趋于稳定。⾦价也是如此——直到鲍威尔在⼋⽉发表讲话后不久。 Even after Trump’s tariffs have boosted some prices, the central banker signaled thebeginning of a Fed rate-cutting cycle to ward offdanger signs in the U.S. labor market.Trump, who is expected to appoint Powell’s successor as Fed chair next year, hascalled for even steeper cuts in the months ahead in a bidto run the U.S. economy hot. 即便在特朗普的关税推⾼了部分价格之后，这位央⾏⾏长仍发出美联储将开始降息周期的信号，以防范美国劳动市场出现的危险迹象。特朗普预计将于明年任命鲍威尔的继任者担任美联储主席，他已呼吁在未来⼏个⽉实施更⼤幅度的降息，以推动美国经济保持⾼温运⾏。 Expectations for rate cuts boosted long-term inflation expectations, propping upyields on longer-term U.S. government debt. They also spurred a rush into riskyassets, from tech stocks to cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, which investors often describeas a form of “digital gold” to hedge against currency risks, is up more than 30% thisyear and touched records above $125,000 on Monday. 对降息预期的押注推⾼了长期通胀预期，从⽽⽀撑了美国长期国债收益率。它们也引发了对风险资产的抢购，从科技股到加密货币。投资者常将⽐特币称为对冲货币风险的“数字黄⾦”，今年已上涨逾30%，周⼀⼀度触及超过125,000美元的纪录⾼位。 At the same time, even investors who are bullish on stocks an